EUR/USD Forecast: Euro bulls wake up after a sluggish start to 2026
- EUR/USD recovers toward 1.1750 following Monday's volatile session.
- The European economic calendar will feature German inflation data for December.
- The US Dollar could stay on the back foot in case market mood remains upbeat.
EUR/USD fell to the 1.1650 region in the first half of the day on Monday and touched its weakest level in nearly a month. The pair, however, managed to stage a decisive rebound in the American session and closed the day virtually unchanged. EUR/USD holds its ground in the European morning on Tuesday and continues to rise toward 1.1750.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.05% | -0.61% | -0.31% | 0.14% | -0.76% | -0.72% | -0.15% | |
| EUR | 0.05% | -0.56% | -0.20% | 0.19% | -0.71% | -0.67% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.61% | 0.56% | 0.25% | 0.77% | -0.15% | -0.11% | 0.46% | |
| JPY | 0.31% | 0.20% | -0.25% | 0.44% | -0.48% | -0.42% | 0.19% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | -0.19% | -0.77% | -0.44% | -0.75% | -0.86% | -0.29% | |
| AUD | 0.76% | 0.71% | 0.15% | 0.48% | 0.75% | 0.05% | 0.62% | |
| NZD | 0.72% | 0.67% | 0.11% | 0.42% | 0.86% | -0.05% | 0.57% | |
| CHF | 0.15% | 0.10% | -0.46% | -0.19% | 0.29% | -0.62% | -0.57% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The disappointing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from the US caused the US Dollar (USD) come under bearish pressure late Monday and helped EUR/USD reverse its direction.
The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.9 in December from 48.2 in November, reflecting an ongoing contraction in the sector's business activity at an accelerating pace. Additionally, the Employment Index came in at 44.9 and showed that manufacturing jobs continued to decline.
In the meantime, the bullish action seen in Wall Street didn't allow the USD to find demand as a safe haven and stay resilient against its peers. Early Tuesday, US stock index futures rise between 0.1% and 0.3%, making it difficult for the USD to shake off the bearish pressure.
In the second half of the day, December inflation data from Germany will be watched closely by market participant. Investors expect the Harmonized Index of Consumer Price (HICP), the European Central Bank's (ECB) preferred gauge of inflation, to rise 2.2% in December, down from 2.6% in November. A reading above the market expectation could help the Euro continue to gather strength. On the flip side, a reading of 2%, or lower, could hurt the currency and cause EUR/USD to turn south with the immediate reaction.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) continues to decline and sits below the 50-period SMA, while the 100- and 200-period SMAs edge higher. Price holds beneath the 50- and 100-period SMAs but remains just above the 20-period SMA, pointing to a mixed near-term tone with longer-term averages still supportive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 51.8, neutral, with a modest uptick.
Measured from the 1.1503 low to the 1.1800 high, the 23.6% retracement at 1.1730 offers initial support, while the 38.2% retracement at 1.1687 lies below. Holding above these retracements would keep the broader recovery intact, whereas failure to reclaim the 100-period SMA at 1.1746 would cap rebounds and expose the pair to a deeper pullback toward 1.1687. A sustained move above the short-term averages would improve momentum and allow EUR/USD to advance toward 1.1800 (static level) and 1.1840 (static level).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
