EUR/USD Forecast: Downtrend resistance is the pair's foe

The EUR/USD is trading within well-known ranges.
US Retail Sales and concerns about trade top the agenda.
The technical picture is slightly bearish for the pair.

Yohay Elam FXStreet

The EUR/USD is trading around the round level of 1.1700, well within ranges seen in recent weeks. Traders are gradually moving on from France's win of the World Cup in Russia to market-moving events. Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet his American counterpart Donald Trump in Helsinki. Ukraine, Syria, sanctions, and trade are on the agenda.

Ahead of the encounter, President Trump described the European Union as a "foe" and cited competition on trade. The President of the European Council Donald Tusk warned that conflicts about trade could turn into "hot conflicts". The recent NATO Summit in Brussels showcased the growing rift between the US and its European allies.

Markets remain relatively calm amid the rhetoric, but things may change in favor of the US Dollar. Any deterioration in trade relations has favored the US Dollar in the past week.

The US will publish its monthly retail sales for June later in the day. The US economy is focused around consumption and the publication always moves the markets. The report for May came out above expectations and sent the greenback soaring. All the figures for June are projected to be positive, but not as robust as last time. The publication also feeds into Q2 GDP.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR USD daily technical analysis July 16 2018

The EUR/USD is trading below downtrend resistance which begins from teh 1.1795 peak and has touched the price on three occasions, making it a significant line. The line still holds at the moment. A break higher would be a bullish sign.

The Relative Strength Index is steady around 50, while Momentum is slightly negative. The 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages on the 4-hour chart are close to each other and to the price, thus not providing any specific guidance.

Looking down, 1.11665 provided support to the pair on July 11th. It is followed by 1.1630 which was a swing low on July 4th, and 1.1590 which supported the pair on July 2nd. The 2018 trough of 1.1508 is the next level to watch.

Looking up, 1.1720 capped teh pair in early July and also in late June. The aforementioned 1.1795 is a strong line to the upside, and the last level to watch is 1.1850, the June 14th swing high.

More: EUR/USD has its technical battle lines clearly drawn – Confluence Detector

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

GBP/USD drops below 1.3550 on geopolitical tensions, hawkish Fed bets

GBP/USD trades with mild losses below 1.3550 in the second half of the day on Tuesday. The US Dollar recovers some ground amid ongoing Middle East tensions and hawkish expectations around the Fed's interest rate outlook, weighing on the pair ahead of US data releases.

EUR/USD stays below 1.1600 ahead of US data

EUR/USD struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce and trades below 1.1600 on Tuesday. The data from the Eurozone showed that the annual HICP inflation rose to 3.3% in August from 2.9% in July, matching the market expectation, while the core HICP inflation edged lower to 2.4% from 2.5% in this period. In the second half of the day, JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI data will be featured in the US economic calendar.

Gold extends reversal below $4,400 on hawkish Fed repricing

XAU/USD extends its reversal below $4,400, posting a nearly 7% decline from last week's highs. Precious metals struggle this week as markets reprice a Fed rate hike in September.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP struggle to extend gains despite ETF inflows

Bitcoin stalls while holding above $78,000 support as ETF inflows return. Ethereum takes a breather around $2,450 amid sustained institutional support. XRP remains pressured as the 200-day EMA provides immediate support.

US JOLTS Job Openings set to show a steady labor market

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has a busy week, releasing relevant employment data. It will start on Tuesday with the publication of the July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) at 14:00 GMT. The JOLTS report is expected to show job openings stood at 7.3 million in July.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.