EUR/USD Forecast: Bulls maintain the pressure as the mood improves

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0840

The surprise outcome of the French elections brought relief to financial markets.
The United States will publish the June Consumer Price Index this week.
EUR/USD pressures July high, faces strong resistance at around 1.0850.

A better market mood weighs on safe-haven assets at the beginning of the week, resulting in the US Dollar shedding ground against its European rivals. The EUR/USD pair reached a fresh July high of 1.0842, holding nearby ahead of Wall Street’s opening. Market participants recovered their optimism following the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report published last Friday, which showed the country added 206K new jobs in June, but also that the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.1%, while wage-related inflation eased.

Speculative interest breathed after French elections showed no conclusive result but kept the far right away from the leadership. A left-wing alliance won the second round of the snap election, while Marine Le Pen’s far-right party came in third.

European data kept the EUR/USD in check, as the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index unexpectedly fell to -7.3 in July from 0.3 in June. On a positive note, Germany reported a Trade Balance superavit of €24.9 billion in May, better than anticipated. The American session will bring short-term bill auctions and May Consumer Credit Change. Later in the week, the country will publish the June Consumer Price Index (CPI).

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows it found intraday support above the converging 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), providing support at around 1.0790. The 20 SMA, in the meantime, lost its directional strength and turned flat below the longer ones. Finally, technical indicators have turned flat within positive levels but show no signs of giving up.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, a bullish 20 SMA attracted buyers during Asian trading hours while it extends its bullish slope above the longer ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, resume their advance within positive levels and following a corrective slide, in line with persistent buying interest.

Support levels: 1.0790 1.0740 1.0700

Resistance levels: 1.0850 1.0880 1.0930

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD seems vulnerable near 0.6800, 10-month low amid bullish USD

AUD/USD languishes near a 10-month low during the Asian session on Friday, awaiting a break below 0.6800 before the next leg up amid a bullish US Dollar. Firming Fed rate-hike expectations, along with fading hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, help the USD hold gains at its highest level since April 2025. Moreover, the RBA’s dovish tilt undermines the Aussie and backs the case for further losses.

USD/JPY bulls turn cautious near 160.00 amid intervention risks

USD/JPY enters a bullish consolidation phase around its highest level since early September as bulls turn cautious amid intervention risk near 160.00. Meanwhile, the downside seems cushioned as the wide US-Japan interest rate gap keeps the Yen carry trade active. Furthermore, the possibility of a jumbo Fed rate hike and Middle East uncertainties hold the US Dollar near a 19-month top, supporting the currency pair.

Gold remains on the back foot below $3,900

Gold now alternates gains with losses below the $3,900 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal struggles to regain traction amid the firmer US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields and expectations of further tightening by the Fed at its December meeting.

Bitcoin just posted five straight losing weeks, and the storm may not be over yet

Bitcoin is struggling to find support, slipping below $70,000 as multiple headwinds threaten to push the Crypto King lower. The much-anticipated “Uptober” rally failed to materialize, with persistent selling pressure and widespread liquidations instead reinforcing the “Rektober” narrative.

Week ahead – Fed Minutes, inflation data and Nvidia earnings to guide investors

Fed minutes may add to hawkish tone as bets of 50-bps hike grow. Nvidia to report earnings as bar to impress high after spy scandal. Trade and geopolitics to be focal point of Trump-Xi summit.

Gold hit its lowest level of 2026 near $3,850

Gold (XAU/USD) attempts to stabilize around $3,890 on Friday after falling to $3,852 on Thursday, its lowest level since October 2025. The precious metal has lost more than 4% this week, as investors increasingly anticipate further monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The latest decline reflects a sharp change in market expectations.