EUR/USD Forecast: Bulls’ interest easing, but bears still side-lined

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1800

US Initial Jobless Claims fell below 1 million in the week ended August 7.
This Friday, the US will unveil July Retail Sales and the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index.
EUR/USD retreated from a fresh weekly high, bearish potential limited.

The EUR/USD pair has reached a fourth consecutive daily high this Thursday, hitting 1.1863 at the beginning of the US session, later retreating towards the current 1.1800 price zone. The dollar was out of the market’s favor for most of the day, only finding support in upbeat local data. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 7 fell to 963K, the first time below 1M since mid-March. Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended July 31, shrank to 15.486M, also beating the market’s expectations. However, the news also gave support to equities, which traded with a sour tone in the first two sessions on the day.

In Europe, Germany reported July inflation, which remained unchanged at -0.1% YoY, failing to trigger some action across the board. This Friday, the EU will report the second estimate of the Q2 GDP, foreseen unchanged at -12.1%. The US, on the other hand, will publish July Retail Sales, seen up by 1.9%, and the preliminary estimate of the August Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, seen at 72 from 72.5 in the previous month.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair has partially lost bullish strength, but a downward movement seems unlikely at the time being. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair keeps developing above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA currently heading marginally higher at around 1.1780. Technical indicators in the mentioned time-frame, have eased from weekly highs, the Momentum heading south within positive levels and the RSI currently flat at around 54.

Support levels: 1.1780 1.1730 1.1690

Resistance levels: 1.1870 1.1915 1.1950

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

Premium

You have reached your limit of 3 free articles for this month.

Start your subscription and get access to all our original articles.

Subscribe to Premium Sign In

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

EUR/USD: US Dollar to remain pressured until uncertainty fog dissipates

Unimpressive European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. The United States first-tier employment and inflation data is scheduled for the second week of February. EUR/USD battles to remain afloat above 1.1800, sellers moving to the sidelines.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold: Volatility persists in commodity space

After losing more than 8% to end the previous week, Gold remained under heavy selling pressure on Monday and dropped toward $4,400. Although XAU/USD staged a decisive rebound afterward, it failed to stabilize above $5,000. The US economic calendar will feature Nonfarm Payrolls and Consumer Price Index data for January, which could influence the market pricing of the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and impact Gold’s performance.

Week ahead: US NFP and CPI data to shake Fed cut bets, Japan election looms

US NFP and CPI data awaited after Warsh’s nomination as Fed chief. Yen traders lock gaze on Sunday’s snap election. UK and Eurozone Q4 GDP data also on the agenda. China CPI and PPI could reveal more weakness in domestic demand.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.