EUR/USD Forecast: awaiting ECB for further guidance, 1.15 acting as a key hurdle

The EUR/USD pair failed to build on Friday's strong up-move and once again confronted some fresh supply just ahead of the key 1.15 psychological mark. The recent ECB taper tantrum”, coupled with broad based US Dollar sell-off had been supportive of the pair's strong up-move over the past three weeks. However, investors now seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets ahead of this week's ECB monetary policy decision on Thursday. The ECB announcement and subsequent press conference would be eagerly looked upon for further guidance and eventually determine the pair's near-term trajectory. In the meantime, today's release of Empire State manufacturing index from the US, due later during the NA session, could provide some impetus for short-term trading opportunities. 

Technically, the pair has been facing resistance near 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level of 1.1172-1.14456 up-move and subsequent retracement. Hence, any follow through weakness below 1.14440 level would be first signs of long winding and turn the pair vulnerable to head back towards the 1.1400 handle. The downfall could further get extended towards 1.1340 intermediate horizontal zone ahead of the very important 1.1310-1.1300 strong support. 

Alternatively, a strong follow through buying interest beyond 1.1480 immediate hurdle, leading to a subsequent strength beyond the 1.15 handle, is likely to accelerate the up-move towards 1.1530-35 resistance before the pair eventually darts towards reclaiming the 1.1600 round figure mark.