|

EUR/USD Forecast: a test of YTD lows near 1.1020 looms bigger

  • EUR/USD grinds lower to sub-1.1100 levels.
  • USD-buying, easing ‘repatriation’ flows, ECB behind the down move.
  • Recent auspicious US docket also added to the downbeat mood.

The pessimism around the European currency stays everything but abated so far this week. EUR/USD finally stop struggling and receded to the 1.1100 neighbourhood and below, where it is now looking to stabilize somehow.

Comments from ECB’s O.Rehn on Thursday appear to have convinced EUR-bears to return to the markets, encouraging the pair to break below the multi-session sideline theme at the same time. Board member O.Rehn seems to have put words to the common thought that the ECB is likely to surpass investors’ expectations when the central bank delivers its package of new monetary stimulus at the September event.

Extra downside pressure on spot came in the form of auspicious results from the US docket on Thursday, where Retail Sales, the Philly Fed index and the NY Empire State index all bettered expectations and therefore lent extra oxygen to the moderate recovery in the buck.

In light of the recent price action, EUR/USD has now opened the door to a probable visit to yearly lows in the vicinity of 1.1020. Further south, there are no significant support levels until the 1.0840 region, where sits May 2017 lows. On the (unlikely) event of a sustained rebound, the 1.1154/69 band – where coincide the 21-day and 10-day SMAs – emerges as the interim hurdle ahead of the more relevant 1.1219/49 region, home of the 100-day SMA, 55-day SMA and monthly tops. If (and most important, ‘when’) this area is cleared, the downside pressure should alleviate somewhat, allowing then for a move to the critical 200-day SMA, today at 1.1288.

Author

Pablo Piovano

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

More from Pablo Piovano
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD falls toward 1.1700 on broad USD recovery

EUR/USD turns south and declines toward 1.1700 on Wednesday. The US Dollar gathers recovery momentum and forces the pair to stay on the back foor, as traders look to USD short-covering ahead of US inflation report on Thursday. However, the downside could be capped by hawkish ECB expectations. 

GBP/USD trades deep in red below 1.3350 after soft UK inflation data

GBP/USD stays under strong selling pressure midweek and trades below 1.3350. The UK annual headline and core CPI rose by 3.2% each, missing estimates of 3.5% and 3.4%, respectively, reaffirming dovish BoE expectations and smashing the Pound Sterling across the board ahead of Thurday's BoE policy announcements. 

Gold clings to moderate daily gains above $4,300

Following Tuesday's volatile action, Gold regains its traction on Wednesday and trades in positive territory above $4,300. While the buildup in the USD recovery momentum caps XAU/USD's upside, the cautious market stance helps the pair hold its ground.

Bitcoin risks deeper correction as ETF outflows mount, derivative traders stay on the sidelines

Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure, trading below $87,000 on Wednesday, nearing a key support level. A decisive daily close below this zone could open the door to a deeper correction.

Monetary policy: Three central banks, three decisions, the same caution

While the Fed eased its monetary policy on 10 December for the third consecutive FOMC meeting, without making any guarantees about future action, the BoE, the ECB and the BoJ are holding their respective meetings this week. 

AAVE slips below $186 as bearish signals outweigh the SEC investigation closure

Aave (AAVE) price continues its decline, trading below $186 at the time of writing on Wednesday after a rejection at the key resistance zone. Derivatives positioning and momentum indicators suggest that bearish forces still dominate in the near term.