• EUR/USD grinds lower to sub-1.1100 levels.
  • USD-buying, easing ‘repatriation’ flows, ECB behind the down move.
  • Recent auspicious US docket also added to the downbeat mood.

The pessimism around the European currency stays everything but abated so far this week. EUR/USD finally stop struggling and receded to the 1.1100 neighbourhood and below, where it is now looking to stabilize somehow.

Comments from ECB’s O.Rehn on Thursday appear to have convinced EUR-bears to return to the markets, encouraging the pair to break below the multi-session sideline theme at the same time. Board member O.Rehn seems to have put words to the common thought that the ECB is likely to surpass investors’ expectations when the central bank delivers its package of new monetary stimulus at the September event.

Extra downside pressure on spot came in the form of auspicious results from the US docket on Thursday, where Retail Sales, the Philly Fed index and the NY Empire State index all bettered expectations and therefore lent extra oxygen to the moderate recovery in the buck.

In light of the recent price action, EUR/USD has now opened the door to a probable visit to yearly lows in the vicinity of 1.1020. Further south, there are no significant support levels until the 1.0840 region, where sits May 2017 lows. On the (unlikely) event of a sustained rebound, the 1.1154/69 band – where coincide the 21-day and 10-day SMAs – emerges as the interim hurdle ahead of the more relevant 1.1219/49 region, home of the 100-day SMA, 55-day SMA and monthly tops. If (and most important, ‘when’) this area is cleared, the downside pressure should alleviate somewhat, allowing then for a move to the critical 200-day SMA, today at 1.1288.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD falls off the highs amid trade wars, weak German figures

EUR/USD is falling toward 1.1100. The German IFO Business Climate dropped to 94.3 points, below expectations. Markets are concerned by the intensifying US-Sino trade wars.


GBP/USD consolidates amid Brexit uncertainty

GBP/USD is trading below 1.2300, consolidating its gains. The UK and the EU have been blaming each other for a potential no-deal Brexit. US-Sino tensions are in play as well.


USD/JPY recovers farther from multi-year lows on Trump’s positive trade-related comments

The incoming positive trade-related comments dented the JPY’s safe-haven demand. Improving global risk sentiment helped the pair to recover around 150-pips intraday. Investors now look forward to the US durable goods orders data for a fresh impetus.


Forex Today: Trade wars paint markets in red, Brexit looks worse, and central banks are limited

Here is what you need to know on Monday, August 26th: The US-Sino trade war is painting global markets in the red. The US dollar is losing some ground to major currencies as yields plunge, while it gains against commodity currencies. Gold is rising and oil is falling.

Read more

Gold retreats from multi-year tops, fills weekly bullish gap on positive trade headlines

Gold extended its intraday pullback from fresh multi-year tops and dropped to fresh session lows in the last hour, filling the weekly bullish gap. The US-China trade tensions escalated further.

Gold News