EUR/USD Forecast: 3 reasons for the fall, only a healthy correction for now

The EUR/USD is trading well below 1.1700, paring the gains seen on Tuesday. The US Dollar is making a comeback.

Here are three reasons for the upswing:

1) Natural correction:. The thrill from the US-Mexico deal is fading out and is already priced in. Canada is also set to make concessions and reach a new NAFTA agreement.

2) China: Concern about US-China relations weighs. US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross reiterated the position of President Donald Trump, saying it is not the time to talk to China. The US is on course to impose new tariffs next week.

3) Consumer are happy: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence jumped to the highest levels since November 2000. The figure provides some optimism after a few disappointing housing figures, the last being the Case Shiller House Price Index, which slowed down.

The primary economic indicator of the week is scheduled for today. The US publishes the second estimate of Q2 GDP. The initial assessment was for a growth rate of 4.1% annualized, the fastest in four years. A small downgrade is on the cards now, but it is unlikely to deter the Fed.

See how to trade the GDP with EUR/USD.

Apart from the data, any news global commerce will rock the US Dollar.

In the euro-zone, France confirmed the meager growth rate of 0.2% QoQ in Q2. More importantly, Italy reportedly wants the European Central Bank to continue buying Italian bonds. The new Italian government is a collision course with the EU bureaucracy as well as with Germany.

US events have a bigger say than European ones in recent days.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD continues looking good despite the recent downfall. The fresh lows are still above the previous lows. Also, Momentum and the Relative Strength Index remain positive. The 50 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart is about to cross the 200 one, a bullish sign.

1.1700 is a round number and also capped the pair in early and late August. 1.1750 is a quadruple top, as seen back in July and is fierce resistance. Further up, 1.1795 held the EUR/USD down in June. 

1.1655 was a stepping stone on the way up. A significant fall below this line may pace the move to the downside. 1.1625 capped the pair in mid-August. Lower, 1.1595 was a swing low before the run of the last few days. 

More: EUR/USD fell off support, looks vulnerable – Confluence Detector