Vasilis Tsaprounis
Independent Analyst
The single European currency is trading near the 1,0850 levels at the start of the week trying to defend Friday's small gains in a generally calm trading environment as investors remain cautious ahead of a stormy week with major macroeconomic developments highlighted by Fed President Jerome Powell speech on Wednesday and the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday.
The exchange rate continues to be generally quite ''heavy'' and remains locked in a limited range of variation as any specific direction is extremely difficult to see on the horizon.
The prospect of a change in the monetary policy of the two main Central Banks monopolizes the interest of investors and remains one of the main catalysts expected to affect the exchange rate in the near future.
For now there is no significant change in bets, with most focused on the possibility that any move to cut key interest rates will happen in June.
Today's agenda is relatively poor and apart from the investor confidence index in the eurozone there is nothing else important, while on the other side of the atlantic the agenda is relatively indifferent with no any macroeconomic data.
Since at the midle of the week, as mentioned, stormy macroeconomic developments are expected, the most likely scenario for today is for the exchange rate to remain in a limited fluctuation range and the breakdown of some important levels would be a surprise.
Α waiting strategy on possible sharp dives for the pair to new local lows in order to position myself in favor of the euro remains in my mind.
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