EUR/USD: ECB day, no changes on the table but Chair Lagarde could shake the markets

The single European currency remains between the 1.09 - 1.0950 levels in a calm trading environment trying to digest the latest bullish move during yesterday where the exchange rate climbed to new 4-month highs.

With nothing major on the agenda, the European currency has maintained the mild momentum of recent days even though signs of fatigue have already appeared on the table, while awaiting today's European Central Bank meeting, many investors would prefer to remain on hold.

No surprises are expected in today's meeting and the most likely scenario is for interest rates to remain unchanged with all interest focused on President Lagarde's speech and her comments on the European Central Bank's next thoughts on the level of interest rates and inflation in the Εurozone.

For now, bets remain high on the possibility of the European Central Bank making two more key interest rate cuts by the end of the year.

The landscape remains murkier on the US Central Bank side where several different views remain in play for scenarios ranging from only a single rate cut to the possibility - albeit limited - of three rate cuts by end of the year.

These bets have affected the US dollar in the last period and although it continues to sit at higher yields, the prospect of these yields remaining or even widening in relation to the euro has begun to be questioned.

Otherwise, the general picture of the market does not show significant differences and although the European currency maintained for one more day the mild upward momentum my doubts about the easy breakdown of the 1,10 level but mainly it remains.

Apart from the ECB meeting today's agenda is relatively uneventful with weekly US jobless claims being the only standout.

For now I remain on hold while maintaining a possible buy view on  US currency above the 1,10 level.