EUR/USD: Could 2025 be a Euro year against all bets?

The single European currency started the new year with some losses, hovering near the 1.0350 level in the early hours of Thursday, near the recent low of 1.0330, which is also a critical support level.

The European currency continues to be under question and apart from some very small, limited reactions, it has nothing done better in recent weeks.

The new year begins with the critical weights that have weighed on the European currency over the last three months remaining on the table.

Geopolitical risks, the interest rate differential in favor of the American currency and concerns about the course of the European economy remain high on investors agenda, having trapped the European currency in an environment of doubts.

Currently, bets remain against the European currency, but as the exchange rate moves lower, approaching even more the critical level of 1/1, skepticism is expected to be on the table as to whether further very low prices are desirable by the European Central Bank, but also by the American economy, as it may lose the good growth rate in which it currently remains.

Although the bets generally remain in favor of the US currency, I will maintain a more conservative view, giving good chances to the scenario that during the year the euro will recover significantly and find itself again close to the levels of 1,10, perhaps even higher.

For now, investors are focused on economic data releases, with today's agenda including weekly jobless claims in the United States, which should surprise significantly in order to create some major volatility.

There are no significant changes in my thinking, I remain on the wait-and-see side and would like some new dips well below the recent levels of 1,0330 to consider positioning in favor of the European currency.