|

EUR/USD: Confusion, doubt and fear drive the pair

The intense environment of confusion remains for the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar as on the one hand the prospects for a bold increase in interest rates at the Fed's meeting have been greatly reduced but on the other hand fears that the banking industry in America and Europe may be shaken further limits the losses of the US currency as traditionally functions as a safe haven currency.

The pair beyond a small extension continues to be trapped in the 1,05-1,07 range and has considerable difficulty finding any strong direction.

The latest developments with the rescue of the Swiss bank Credit Suisse , it hasย  removed the worst for now, but the calm and positive clima has not fully returned to the stock markets.

Indicative of the uncertainty are gold prices which after a long period of time are at high levels having already touched 2,000 dollars per ounce.

The latest developments with the significant problem in the banking industryย  due to high interest rates is expected to pressure the Fed to remain in more dovishย  tone regarding its future moves and now the possibility of 50 basis points which was quite in the game , now has been greatly reduced.

On today's agenda, President Lagarde speech stands out in which many hope that she will send strong messages of confidence to the European banking sector and general reassure the markets.

The general picture of the course of the market has not changed, I maintain some strategy for buying at dips and selling at the peaks of the exchange rate ,ย 

Especially now , In view of the new developments thatย  limiting the possibility the Fedย  to move more aggressivelyย  , every dip in the pair creates opportunities to buy of the European currency as the reactions continue to be in the game with great fidelity.

Author

Vasilis Tsaprounis

Vasilis Tsaprounis

Independent Analyst

Vassilis Tsaprounis possesses over 25 years of professional experience in Capital Markets and especially in the foreign exchange market.

More from Vasilis Tsaprounis
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD recovers to 1.1750 region as 2025 draws to a close

Following the bearish action seen in the European session on Wednesday, EUR/USD regains its traction and recovery to the 1.1750 region. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low as trading conditions thin out on the last day of the year.

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3450 on modest USD recovery

GBP/USD remains under modest beairsh pressure and fluctuates at around 1.3450 on Wednesday. The US Dollar finds fresh demand due to the end-of-the-year position adjustments, weighing on the pair amid the pre-New Year trading lull. 

Gold retreats to $4,300 area, looks to post monthly gains

Gold stays on the back foot on the last day of 2025 and trades near $4,300, possibly pressured by profit-taking and position adjustments. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains on track to post gains for December and extend its winning streak into a fifth consecutive month.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP prepare for a potential New Year rebound

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are holding steady on Wednesday after recording minor gains on the previous day. Technically, Bitcoin could extend gains within a triangle pattern while Ethereum and Ripple face critical overhead resistance. 

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).