EUR/USD Analysis: recovery seems corrective for now

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1236

EUR/USD recovers after testing 1.1200, but the bullish picture still unclear.
US disappointing data made put dollar bulls on hold for now.

The EUR/USD pair flirted with 1.1200 at the beginning of the day, bouncing from the area just modestly, as the psychological barrier is a tough bone to break. Nevertheless, the American currency retains its strength as the latest US macroeconomic releases put in doubt a dovish turn of the Fed, given that consumption remains resilient. The US Central Bank is scheduled to meet this week, and its decision will be key for the dollar. Meanwhile, ECB´s Benoit Coeure warned of “bleak” indicators about the health of the global economy, and that risks could materialize in the next few meetings.

News coming from the EU showed that Labour Cost rose by less-than-anticipated in Q1, up by 2.4% vs. the 2.6% forecasted. As for the US, the country has just released the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for June, which came much worse than anticipated, printing -8.6 vs. the previous 17.8 and the expected 10.0. Pending of release is the NAHB Housing Market Index for June, foreseen at 67 vs. the previous 66.

The dollar eased mid-European session, coming under further pressure after the release of discouraging US data, resulting in the EUR/USD pair trading in the 1.1240 region ahead of Wall Street's opening. US equities are set to open lower, as European ones are fading their early strength, now struggling to remain afloat. The 4 hours chart shows that the pair bounced from around the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily advance, and trades now a handful of pips above the 50% retracement of the same rally, also above the 100 SMA, which converges with the mentioned Fibonacci level at around 1.1230. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart have recovered from oversold readings, but remain well below their midlines, keeping the ongoing advance as a corrective move. The upside will look more open if the pair manages to extend beyond the 1.1260/70 price zone, now the immediate resistance.

Support levels: 1.1230 1.1185 1.1140

Resistance levels: 1.1265 1.1310 1.1350

View Live chart for the EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

EUR/USD hovers around nine-day EMA above 1.1800

EUR/USD remains in the positive territory after registering modest gains in the previous session, trading around 1.1820 during the Asian hours on Monday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index momentum indicator at 54 is edging higher, signaling improving momentum. RSI near mid-50s keeps momentum balanced. A sustained push above 60 would firm bullish control.

GBP/USD holds medium-term bullish bias above 1.3600

The GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note around 1.3605 during the early European session on Monday. Growing expectation of the Bank of England’s interest-rate cut weighs on the Pound Sterling against the Greenback.

Gold sticks to gains above $5,000 as China's buying and Fed rate-cut bets drive demand

Gold surges past the $5,000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday in reaction to the weekend data, showing that the People's Bank of China extended its buying spree for a 15th month in January. Moreover, dovish US Federal Reserve expectations and concerns about the central bank's independence drag the US Dollar lower for the second straight day, providing an additional boost to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate after massive sell-off

Weekly column: Saturn-Neptune and the end of the Dollar’s 15-year bull cycle

Tariffs are not only inflationary for a nation but also risk undermining the trust and credibility that go hand in hand with the responsibility of being the leading nation in the free world and controlling the world’s reserve currency.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate after massive sell-off

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple prices consolidated on Monday after correcting by nearly 9%, 8%, and 10% in the previous week, respectively. BTC is hovering around $70,000, while ETH and XRP are facing rejection at key levels. Traders should be cautious: despite recent stabilization, upside recovery for these top three cryptocurrencies is capped as the broader trend remains bearish.