EUR/USD Analysis: bulls unwilling to compromise

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1306

  • EU data encouraging, but speculative interest unimpressed.
  • Market's mood remains positive although caution prevails.

The EUR/USD pair peaked for the day at 1.1323 but is once again battling with the 1.1300 figure, with most major pairs still stuck to familiar ranges, mostly due to the wait-and-see stance from speculative interest ahead of Thursday's first-tier data, and Eastern Holidays that sees investors moving away from their trading desks. Data coming from Europe earlier today failed to impress bulls despite beating expectations, as February Trade Balance printed a surplus of €19.5B seasonally adjusted, largely above the market's expectations.  Also,  core monthly March inflation in the Union resulted at 1.0%, surpassing the 0.3% expected, although unchanged at 0.8% when compared to a year earlier.

The US released MBA mortgage applications which fell by 3.5% in the week ended April 12, and the February Trade Balance, with the deficit shrinking to $49.4B. The country will release later today February Wholesale Inventories, while Fed's Bullard is scheduled to speak in the American afternoon.

The pair continues trading between the 38.2% and the 50% retracements of the 1.1447 and 1.1183 decline, with spikes beyond the levels being quickly reversed. The 4 hours chart shows that the pair recovered to trade above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA at around 1.1300 and advancing above the larger ones, but technical indicators have lost upward strength after entering positive territory, indicating that bulls still hold the grip, but are unwilling to compromise at the time being.

Support levels: 1.1280 1.1245 1.1200      

Resistance levels: 1.1320 1.1350 1.1385

View Live chart for the EUR/USD

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