EUR/USD analysis: back to battle with 1.1300

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1302

  • Poor US data kept dollar's gains at check once again.
  • German inflation grew by less than expected in February.

The EUR/USD pair fell this Thursday to 1.2938, easing ever since the day started on the back of soft Chinese data and market talks suggesting the Japanese government will review its growth assessment this month spurring risk aversion. The dismal sentiment was exacerbated during London trading hours by news suggesting that China is considering delaying the Trump-Xi meeting to at least April, triggering concerns about an escalation in the trade war. Furthermore, German February CPI missed the market's expectations and resulted slightly below expected, up by 0.4% MoM and by 1.5% YoY. US data disappointed, halting dollar's advance, as weekly unemployment claims resulted at 229K in the week ended March 8, while New Home Sales plunged by 6.9% in January. Meanwhile, the market continues being all about Brexit, with the ups and downs in GBP/USD triggering some directional moves in the pair.

The EU will unveil final February inflation figures this Friday, with the core monthly reading already revised to 0.3% from an initial estimate of -1.5% The core annual reading is expected unchanged at 1.0%. The US will publish the March NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, forecasted at 10.0 vs. the previous 8.8, February Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March, foreseen at 95.3 vs. 93.8 previously.

The pair finishes the American session hovering around the 1.1300 level,  the 50% retracement of the latest daily decline, after failing to establish itself beyond the 61.8% retracement of the same slide, which skews the risk to the downside. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has continued advancing, now a few pips below the daily low, while technical indicators corrected overbought readings, now lacking directional strength just above their midlines, indicating that sellers are not ready to give a decisive downward push at the time being.  

Support levels:  1.1265 1.1220 1.1185

Resistance levels: 1.1330 1.1375 1.1410     

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

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