Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
EUR/USD
The progress of the euro rally has been remarkable in recent sessions. We have previously discussed the acceleration of the positive candles, and these continue to build. Yesterday’s huge bull candle added around +150 pips and the move has now retraced around 50% Fibonacci of the massive $1.1492/$1.0635 sell-off. Momentum indicators are obviously turning positive with this move and continue to recovery, with upside potential. We note that since February, EUR/USD has seen huge trending moves over two to three week periods, moving between oversold, overbought and back again. Given we are only a handful of sessions into this move, the upside bias remains strong. The hourly chart shows an acceleration away from the uptrend of the recovery and this may slightly weigh on the move today. There is also a mild negative divergence on hourly RSI (and MACD/Stochastics lines crossing lower). This could induce an intraday slip back at least. However, we would see this as a chance to buy. Initial support at $1.1020 this morning, before a good support band $1.0950/$1.0980. Today’s high at $1.1085 is initial resistance but closing well clear of the 50% Fib at $1.1065 is the next bullish step forward.
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