Technical analysis: Will the EUR/PLN quotes continue to increase?
EUR/PLN technical analysis summary
Above 4.9.
Buy Stop.
Below 4.7.
Stop Loss.
| Indicator | Signal |
| RSI | Neutral |
| MACD | Buy |
| MA(200) | Neutral |
| Fractals | Neutral |
| Parabolic SAR | Buy |
| Bollinger Bands | Neutral |
EUR/PLN chart analysis
On the daily timeframe, EURPLN: D1 approached the resistance line of the growing channel. It must be broken up before opening a buy position. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if EURPLN rises above the last two up fractals: 4.9. This level can be used as an entry point. Initial risk cap possible below the Parabolic signal, the last two down fractals and the 200-day moving average: 4.7. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a trade, can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (4.7) without activating the order (4.9), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental analysis of forex - EUR/PLN
In Poland, record inflation may persist. Will the EURPLN quotes continue to increase?
The upward movement means the Polish zloty weakens against the euro. Last week, on October 5, the National Bank of Poland kept the rate at 6.75%. This is the highest since 2002. At the same time, preliminary inflation in the country in September reached its maximum since 1997 and amounted to 17.2% y/y. October 14 will be the final data on inflation in Poland for September. It will most likely coincide with the record preliminary level, which is much higher than the NBP rate. An additional negative for the zloty could be an increase in defense spending in the draft budget for 2023. They can amount to 14.5% of the total planned budget expenditures. We note that the draft Polish budget for the next year includes relatively high inflation of 9.8% y/y (above the current NBP rate).
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Author
Dmitry Lukashov
IFC Markets
Dimtry Lukashov is the senior analyst of IFC Markets. He started his professional career in the financial market as a trader interested in stocks and obligations.
