EUR/GBP: A constructive brexit tone triggered a sterling recovery since the end of September

KBC Market Research Desk KBC Bank

EUR/USD

EUR/USD came under modest pressure as Italian budget worries weighed on the euro while strong US data supported the dollar. The fall halted recently after a correction in US assets caused a small dollar "exodus".

EUR/GBP

A constructive brexit tone triggered a sterling recovery since the end of September. However, a formal deal has yet to be agreed upon, keeping the pair within the well-established 0.87/90 range.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY's uptrend following higher US rates reversed after a US assets' selloff. Even so, the yen also profited only moderately from recent uptick in risk aversion.

EUR/CZK

Despite a third straight increase of the Czech base rate (1.50%) in September, EUR/CZK regained traction starting mid-September. More hikes are to a great extent already priced in, exhausting any interest rate support for the Czech koruna in the short term.

EUR/HUF

EUR/HUF left the 305-315 trading range and found higher ground following Orban's election victory and during the emerging market turmoil. Despite a slightly less dovish NBH (guidance) stance, rate hikes are still far off.

EUR/PLN

The zloty took a hit as the dollar firmed, putting many EM currencies under pressure. Furthermore, the NBP has no intention at all to normalize policy any time soon. The pair is capped within a relatively tight 4.25/35 range.

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KBC Market Research Desk

KBC Bank

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