KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
Regional Overview
Macro, FX & Rates: CNB continues to intervene heavily
(CZ) The Czech National Bank continues to intervene heavily against the koruna appreciation. In March, the volume of excess liquidity that is being withdrawn from the Czech banking system has already increased by about CZK 220bn (approx. EUR 8.15bn). Speed of CNB liquidity accumulation has so far been only faster in January 2017.
Equities: CEZ releases 2016Q4 results tomorrow
(CZ) CEZ: Company releases 4Q16 results tomorrow B/Mkt. We expect revenues to be c.15% lower y/y with a lower average achieved baseload electricity price (35.0 EUR/MWh in 2016 vs 39.5 EUR/MWh in 2015). This negative price-effect should be only partly mitigated by a higher planned generation volume of coal power plants (FY16 target +6% y/y). / We downgraded CEZ to Reduce from Accumulate with target price down to CZK 395/shr from CZK 555/shr. We expect CEZ is to increase its pay-out ratio to 60-100% of adjusted net income (from 60-80%) and propose the dividend of 30-33 CZK per share this April. Nevertheless, the Ministry of Finance might reject CEZ proposal at AGM (June) and approve own proposal of a higher dividend (CZK 40/share);
(HU) OTP: Company proposed HUF 190/shr from 2016 profit. / NEUTRAL. Proposed dividend is fully in line with market consensus at HUF 192/shr and translates into 2.2% yield.
| LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (%) | |
| EURCZK | 27.02 | 27.02 | 0.00 |
| EURHUF | 308.9 | 308.2 | 0.21 |
| EURPLN | 4.284 | 4.281 | 0.07 |
| LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (bps) | |
| CZGB 10Y | 0.907 | 0.908 | -0.1 |
| HUGB 10Y | 3.61 | 3.60 | 0.3 |
| PLGB 10Y | 3.73 | 3.73 | 0.0 |
| LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (%) | |
| PX | 980.8 | 980.8 | 0.00 |
| BUX | 32778 | 32778 | 0.00 |
| WIG | 60441 | 60441 | 0.00 |
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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