yieldcurve

 

The stock markets are getting clobbered and bonds are on fire as recession fears escalate.

 

30-Year Bond Yield Smashes Through Record Low

The 30-year long bond yield crashed to 2.024% this morning and is now just a tad higher.

The previous record low 30-year long bond yield of 2.10% was on July 8, 2016 shortly after the UK voted for Brexit (June 23, 2016).

 

Long Bond Yield Down 51 Basis Points Since August 31

bonds

 

On August 31, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made a speech he is going to regret. After the FOMC decision Powell called the rate cut a "Mid-Cycle" Adjustment.

I mocked the call then and did so again on August 6 when St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a dove, Pimped the "Mid-Cycle Adjustment" Thesis.

Amusingly, Bullard professed "The 10-year yield remains above the two-year yield, likely because markets are anticipating future policy moves by the FOMC, and so we are not seeing an intensification of the yield curve inversion so far."

Earlier today, ZeroHedge commented that the 2s10s Spread inverted, but if so, it was fleeting. I think there is too much emphasis on that spread given the 30-Year to FF spread is now inverted and the 5-year FF spread is 63 basis points inverted.

 

Recession Fears

Recession fears have surfaced again.

As of 12:20 PM, S&P futures are down 86 points (3.0%), the Nasdaq is down 236 points (3.0%), and the Dow is down 721 points (2.7%).

 

One Day Wonder

Yesterday, Trump delayed Tariffs and the stock market went on a huge rally.

In Trump Chickens Out, Delays Trade War Tariffs to Save Holiday Season I commented:

Stock Market Reaction

The Dow is up 400 points (1.6%) with the S&P 500 up 50 points (1.8%) and Nasdaq up 47 points (2.2%).

Bond Market Reaction

The bond market reaction is interesting. The 5-year yield is up 7 basis points.

The 10-year yield is up 4 basis points and the 30-year long bond is up a just 1 basis point, a mere 4 basis points from a new record low yield.

Trust the long bond.

Long Bond Screaming Recession

That one-day wonder was even faster than I expected.

Here's the message: Recession.

Meanwhile, note that a Global Manufacturing Recession has started and Trump's tariff policy made matters much worse.

Note that the normal Lead Time Between Manufacturing Recessions and Full Recessions is zero quarters.

A recession may have started already.

This material is based upon information that Sitka Pacific Capital Management considers reliable and endeavors to keep current, Sitka Pacific Capital Management does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD drops below 1.11 amid upbeat US data, trade concerns

EUR/USD is trading below 1.11 after robust US housing figures and solid consumer sentiment figures were published. Earlier, the common currency suffered from the concerns of new US tariffs on the EU.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD down 100 pips after UK retail sales badly disappoint, amid USD strength

GBP/USD has plunged below 1.3050 after UK retail sales badly disappointed with a fall of 0.6% in December, on top of downward revisions. Odds of a BOE cut have risen.

GBP/USD News

Crypto market hyperspace mode On

The secondary actors of the crypto-sphere awaken and rally hard. Leading coins battle with greater resistance at the gates of a full bullish market. The only risk is an over-shoot, but that sentiment remains neutral.

Read more

Gold: Sustained move beyond 200-hour SMA sets the stage for further gains

Gold edged higher through the mid-European session on Friday and is currently placed near the top end of its weekly trading range, around the $1560 region.

Gold News

USD/JPY: Losing bullish momentum but retaining gains

Chinese encouraging data kept markets in risk-on mode at the beginning of the day. The US January Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is seen at 99.3, matching December figure. USD/JPY holding at the upper end of its weekly range could correct lower.

USD/JPY News

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures