EMU Yields decline amid softer inflation data and ECB divergence – US markets reopen

KBC Market Research Desk KBC Bank

Markets

US markets were closed for Thanksgiving yesterday, leaving European markets looking for their own dynamics. National inflation data from Germany (HICP -0.7% M/M and 2.4% Y/Y; unchanged October) and Spain (0% M/M and 2.4% Y/Y from 1.8%, core 2.4% from 2.5%) overall printed on the softer side of expectations, suggesting (modest) downside risks for today’s Flash EMU release. The decline of EMU yields to the incoming CPI data was initially modest/limited. However, in afternoon trading, comments from Banque de France governor Villeroy clearly put other accents on the ECB’s strategy than board member Schnabel on Wednesday. The French governor indicated that the ECB needs full optionality in the current environment on the frequence and the size of rate cuts, including the December one. Inflation reaching the target sooner than expected also is a reason to bring rates to a neutral level and even a decline below neutral might be possible. Especially the latter assessment clearly diverged from Schnabel’s view. The combination of slightly softer than-expected CPI data and the Villeroy comments finally caused EMU yields to follow the path of least resistance, which currently obviously is still south. German yields declined 3.8 bps (5-y) to 1.9 bps (30-y). Money markets see the trough in the EMU easing cycle next year near 1.75%. The Euro this time quite easily withstood the further decline in yields and closed only modestly lower at 1.0552 (from 1.0566). Growing tensions/uncertainty on the French budget didn’t impact the euro. The Eurostoxx 50 even added 0.54%.

US markets rejoin the action today. However with no US data scheduled for release, the focus in the US might be on the shopping malls rather than on Wall Street. Still, US yields this morning continue their recent corrective decline, ceding 3-4 bps across the curve. EMU November CPI data take center stage (headline expected at -0.2% M/M and 2.3% Y/Y from 2%, core expected 2.8% from 2.7%). Even with the French and Italian data still to be released, risks for the outcome are to the downside. Question is how much further markets will/can push expected easing next year, given what is already discounted (1.75% ECB depo rate in H2). For now, there probably is no trigger to row against the existing downtrend in EMU yields, but it might shift into a lower gear. On FX markets, the euro (EUR/USD) enjoys some relief as the correction in US yields and the dollar apparently still has some legs. DXY drops below the 106 handle (105.85). USD/JPY, also pressured by yen strength, is testing the 150 mark this morning. EUR/USD gains a few ticks (EUR/USD 1.0582), but the political/budgetary uncertainty in France probably will continue to prevent dynamic/sustained comeback.

News and views

November Tokyo inflation numbers boost market odds that the Bank of Japan will conduct another rate hike at its December policy meeting. Prices in the capital region rose by 0.5% M/M on a headline level. That’s the third such increase in the past four months. In annual terms, CPI jumped from 1.8% to 2.6%, matching the YTD high. The BoJ’s preferred ex-fresh food gauge equally rose by 0.5% M/M to be up 2.2% Y/Y (from 1.8%). More details showed goods and services inflation increasing by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively in November. Only household goods (-0.5% M/M) and entertainment (-0.1% M/M) had a dampening impact on the monthly CPI-print. The Japanese yen rallied from USD/JPY 151.50 to 150 in response to the figures with money markets currently discounting a 15 bps increase in the BoJ’s target rate (currently 0.25%).

French finance minister Armand yesterday noon already hinted that it’s better to have a budget that is not exactly the one they want instead of having no budget at all. PM Barnier than later on the day stressed that they will do everything to bring the country’s budget deficit from this year’s 6% of GDP to about 5% next year. He also announced a first major concession for the far-right RN who threatens the government over the budget bill. A previously planned increase for an electricity tax will no longer be included in the budget. From February, electricity taxes will now decrease by 14% instead of by 9%. While obviously welcomed, RN-president Bardella already said that his party won’t stop there and that other red lines remain. The French left opposition still plans to table a motion of noconfidence as soon as next week..

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KBC Market Research Desk

KBC Bank

KBC's Market Research Desk publishes a number of short-term reports.

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