Emerging economies: Will growth be as resilient in 2026?

BNP Paribas Team BNP Paribas

Growth in emerging economies remained solid in 2025, driven by exports and supportive financial conditions. Global trade was stimulated by export front loading ahead of US tariff increases, as well as by the reconfiguration of trade flows and the boom in the tech sector. In 2026, growth in emerging economies is expected to remain resilient but become more moderate. Supportive factors are likely to fade and global trade is expected to slow down. Fiscal and monetary policies will continue to support domestic demand but will be more constrained than in 2025. Monetary easing will be more measured, and fiscal room for manoeuvre will be reduced by the need to curb the increase in public debt ratios.

In 2026, foreign trade will contribute less to economic growth

In 2025, external financial conditions were favorable for emerging countries.

Growth in emerging economies has been stronger than expected since the beginning of 2025, thanks in particular to buoyant exports. Aggregate GDP growth in our sample of 28 major emerging economies was slightly above 1% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) in Q1 and Q2 2025. For Q3, available data confirm the resilience of growth in Asia and Central Europe, while activity contracted (q/q) in Mexico and Chile.

According to our forecasts, average real GDP growth in emerging countries for 2025 as a whole should come in at 4.1%, just below its 2024 average (+4.2%). This will be higher than what was anticipated after President Donald Trump's ‘Liberation Day’ on 2 April and the first wave of US tariff hikes. Exports were less affected than expected. Global trade is even expected to rebound in 2025 as a whole: according to IMF forecasts, total exports of goods are expected to grow by +3.7% in volume in 2025, after a +3% increase in 2024.

Trade was boosted by export front-loading ahead of the tariff increases. Above all, flows have quickly reorganised during the year, particularly as a result of the redeployment of Chinese exports. China's strategy has been aimed, on the one hand, at circumventing US tariffs by rerouting goods flows via third countries and, on the other hand, at diversifying markets to offset losses in the United States.

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BNP Paribas Team

BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas Economic Research Department is a worldwide function, part of Corporate and Investment Banking, at the service of both the Bank and its customers.

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