Elliott Wave analysis: USD/CHF downtrend set to extend while rally stalls [Video]

USD/CHF continues to extend lower, reinforcing the prevailing bearish trend. The short-term Elliott Wave outlook suggests that the cycle from the November 25, 2025 high remains in progress as a five-wave impulse. This structure highlights persistent weakness and confirms that rallies are corrective rather than the start of a new bullish phase.

From the November 25 high, wave ((i)) concluded at 0.785. A corrective rally in wave ((ii)) then ended at 0.80408. The pair resumed its decline in wave ((iii)), which subdivides into another five-wave impulse of lesser degree. Within this sequence, wave (i) finished at 0.7876, while the rally in wave (ii) terminated at 0.7968. The market then accelerated lower in wave (iii), reaching 0.7602 before pausing.

Currently, wave (iv) is unfolding as a corrective rally. This move retraces the cycle from the January 22, 2025 high and is expected to develop in either three or seven swings. The projected target lies within the 0.776–0.783 zone, which represents the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave w. This area is identified as the blue box, a region where corrections often terminate.

From this zone, USDCHF faces two potential paths. The pair may resume its decline, continuing the larger bearish impulse. Alternatively, it may produce a three-wave pullback before turning higher again in larger correction In either case, the Elliott Wave structure favors the downside, reinforcing the view that rallies remain corrective and that the broader bearish cycle is not yet complete.

USD/CHF 60-minute chart

USD/CHF Elliott Wave [Video]