Upcoming GDP figures are expected to show that economic growth in New Zealand remains sluggish, but didn't continue slowing in the second quarter of this year. However, with the global backdrop looking increasingly rocky and business conditions weak, the risks for growth over the remainder of 2019 are to the downside. Against this backdrop, the RBNZ is likely to cut the cash rate again later this year in order to boost demand.

 

Soggy but steady growth...

We expect that the upcoming GDP report (out on 19 September) will show that the New Zealand economy expanded by 0.6% in the June quarter, matching the pace of growth seen in the previous two quarters. That wouldn't be a great result, but it would at least suggest that there hasn't been a further deceleration so far this year.

Underlying our expectations for a moderate rise in overall activity are some mixed conditions across the economy. On the upside, we've seen some better conditions in a number of service sectors after softness earlier in the year. We also expect a boost from the agricultural sector, led by a 4% rise in dairy production. Balanced against those developments, construction, mining and food manufacturing all eased back over the quarter

 

....as headwinds continue to build

While GDP growth appears to have held up in the June quarter, stepping back and taking a longer term look at economic activity, it's clear that the wind has come out of New Zealand's sails. Annual GDP growth appears to have slowed from rates of 3 to 4% in recent years down to just 2.5% now. And looking to the back half of the year, the risks for growth are to the downside.

Download The Full Weekly Commentary

All information contained on this website is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. However, the information is selective and neither Westpac nor any other company in the Westpac Group have verified the information, which may not be complete or accurate for your purposes. Those companies make no representation or warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. It is general information only and should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. Neither Westpac nor any other company in the Westpac Group nor any of their directors, employees and associates guarantees the security of this website, gives any warranty of reliability or accuracy nor accepts any responsibility arising in any other way including by reason of negligence for, errors in, or omissions from, the information on this website and does not accept any liability for any loss or damage, however caused, as a result of any person relying on any information on the website or being unable to access this website. This disclaimer is subject to any applicable contrary provisions of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission Act and Trade Practices Act.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Bulls in control above 1.1100 starting out ECB week

Following the bounce from near 1.1100 in early Asia, EUR/USD has entered a phase of consolidated near 1.1140 region ahead of the European open. Bulls await a fresh impetus for the next push above the 1.1150 mark ahead of Eurozone/ US PMIs.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD recedes from three-week top above 1.2400, UK Manufacturing PMI eyed

GBP/USD prints three-day winning streak amid broad US dollar weakness. Calls of further help to British employees add to the upside momentum. Downbeat Brexit headlines confront the UK’s coronavirus optimism. The UK/US PMIs will join qualitative catalysts.

GBP/USD News

Trump tenderness, China's Caixin, boost Asia

Asia is off to a rollicking start to the week with equities performing strongly and currency markets rotating out of haven US Dollars. The turbocharging of bullish sentiment this morning has multiple drivers starting with President Donald Trump. 

Read more

Gold: Teasing a rectangle breakout, $1750 in sight

Gold bulls gathering pace for the next push higher. The extension of last week’s rally in the yellow metal is mainly driven by the sell-off in the US dollar across the board, in the wake of US-China trade war relief and escalating US riots.

Gold News

WTI: Overbought RSI challenges the bulls above $35.50

WTI seesaws around 7-week-old resistance line, retreats from highest since March 11. A short-term ascending trend line on the bears’ radars during the pullback. 100-day SMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement together offers strong upside barrier.

Oil News

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures