|

ECB Quick Analysis: Frankfurt's firepower joins Berlin's boost, EUR/USD higher levels to watch

  • The European Central Bank exceeded expectations with a big boost to bond-buying.
  • The move joins fiscal stimulus from the German government, encouraging private investors.
  • EUR/USD is at the highest since March and ready to attack higher levels.

One-two punch – in favor of the euro. Less than 24 hours have passed since German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a €130 billion stimulus plan, and in Frankfurt, on the other side of Europe's largest economy, another stimulus boost came.

The European Central Bank has announced an increase of €600 billion to its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), and it now reaches €1.35 trillion. That has exceeded most economists' expectations. In addition, the bank said it will reinvest proceeds from this program – maintaining a large balance sheet and similar to previous schemes.

Moreover, the bank extended the length of the PEPP to June 2021 – a year from now. The initial funds were projected to run out by the autumn. And while the bank promised flexibility – potentially purchasing more bonds of hard-hit countries such as Spain and Italy – it refrained from junk bonds. 

Avoiding such problematic debt leaves room for more action if needed. The Federal Reserve bought such "fallen angels" and also municipal and state debt. 

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, completed a full shift from saying it is not the bank's job to squeeze spreads, to almost throwing the kitchen sink. The bank's funds will help governments lower borrowing costs and provide further relief to the economy. 

Both Merkel and Lagarde's moves may increase business and consumer confidence, which could join in with investments and consumption, adding a third stimulus to the economy. 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD has risen to a high above 1.1270 at the time of writing, the highest since March. The daily chart is showing that the next resistance is at 1.1285, which was a high point early in the year. More importantly, 1.1350 was a stepping stone on the way down and it is followed by 1.1410 and 1.1490, the early March peak.

Support awaits at 1.1240, a high point in March, followed by 1.12 and 1.1150, the latter being April's peak.

It is essential to note that the Relative Strength Index is above 70, pointing to overbought conditions, but the currency pair has previously hovered around oversold or overbought territory before moving out of it. 

Author

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

More from Yohay Elam
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD seems vulnerable near 0.6800, 10-month low amid bullish USD

AUD/USD languishes near a 10-month low during the Asian session on Friday, awaiting a break below 0.6800 before the next leg up amid a bullish US Dollar. Firming Fed rate-hike expectations, along with fading hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, help the USD hold gains at its highest level since April 2025. Moreover, the RBA’s dovish tilt undermines the Aussie and backs the case for further losses.

USD/JPY bulls turn cautious near 160.00 amid intervention risks

USD/JPY enters a bullish consolidation phase around its highest level since early September as bulls turn cautious amid intervention risk near 160.00. Meanwhile, the downside seems cushioned as the wide US-Japan interest rate gap keeps the Yen carry trade active. Furthermore, the possibility of a jumbo Fed rate hike and Middle East uncertainties hold the US Dollar near a 19-month top, supporting the currency pair.



Gold remains on the back foot below $3,900

Gold now alternates gains with losses below the $3,900 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal struggles to regain traction amid the firmer US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields and expectations of further tightening by the Fed at its December meeting.

Bitcoin just posted five straight losing weeks, and the storm may not be over yet

Bitcoin is struggling to find support, slipping below $70,000 as multiple headwinds threaten to push the Crypto King lower. The much-anticipated “Uptober” rally failed to materialize, with persistent selling pressure and widespread liquidations instead reinforcing the “Rektober” narrative.

Week ahead – Fed Minutes, inflation data and Nvidia earnings to guide investors

Fed minutes may add to hawkish tone as bets of 50-bps hike grow. Nvidia to report earnings as bar to impress high after spy scandal. Trade and geopolitics to be focal point of Trump-Xi summit.

Gold hit its lowest level of 2026 near $3,850
Gold (XAU/USD) attempts to stabilize around $3,890 on Friday after falling to $3,852 on Thursday, its lowest level since October 2025. The precious metal has lost more than 4% this week, as investors increasingly anticipate further monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The latest decline reflects a sharp change in market expectations.