Notes/observations

- Big picture sees a bid in premarket for several key earnings, including Tesla and Texas Instruments, after a miss in the US Apr PMI yesterday.

- German IFO survey had a 3-way beat and with highest business climate since May 2023.

- Indonesia Central Bank surprise 25bps hike aims to fight inflationary concerns from geopolitical risks and stem currency weakness against the US dollar.

- Key EU earnings releases: ASM, Lloyds, Heineken, Roche, Iberdrola, L’Air Liquide.

- Upcoming US premarket earnings: AVY, BA, BG, BIIB, BSX, CME, CP, ETR, GD, GPI, HAS, HUM, KOF, MAS, NSC, OC, SFNC, T, TMO, TNL, UMC.

- Asia closed higher with Nikkei225 outperforming at +2.3%. EU indices are -0.4% to +0.1%. US futures are +0.1-0.5%. Gold -0.1%, DXY +0.2%; Commodity: Brent -0.4%, WTI -0.4%; Crypto: BTC +0.5%, ETH +2.3%.

Asia

- Australia Q1 CPI Q/Q: 1.0% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.5%e; inflation tracking above RBA's projections thus unlikely to moderate guidance at next month's meeting.

- Australia Mar CPI Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.4%e.

- South Korea Apr Consumer Confidence: 100.7 v 100.7 prior.

- Japan Mar PPI Services Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.1%e.

- BOJ said to be planning to discuss the impact of the Yen's currency rapid slide at this week's policy meeting.

Americas

- US Senate voted to give final approval to a $95.3B package of aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan; bill now goes to President Biden.

Energy

- Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories: -3.2M v +4.1M prior.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.17% at 508.64, FTSE +0.49% at 8,084.25, DAX +0.31% at 18,198.25, CAC-40 +0.17% at 8,119.20, IBEX-35 +0.03% at 11,078.49, FTSE MIB +0.09% at 34,394.00, SMI -0.43% at 11,419.81, S&P 500 Futures +0.15%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open generally mixed but took on a positive bias as the session progressed; among sectors leading to the upside are technology and materials; consumer discretionary and financial sectors among those trending lower; tech sector supported following ASML results; luxury subsector under pressure following disappointing results from Kering; GXO receives clearance to proceed with Wincanton takeover; focus on release of US durable goods orders later in the day; earnings expected in the upcoming Americas session include Boeing, Carrefour, Michelin and Meta.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Kering [KER.FR] -8.5% (Q1 results and profit warning), Heineken [HEIA.NL] +0.5% (Q1 trading update, affirms FY guidance), Casino Guichard Perrachon [CO.FR] +3.5% (transformation plan) - Consumer staples: Reckitt Benckiser [RKT.UK] +4.5% (Q1 trading update, affirms guidance) - Energy: Eni [ENI.IT] -1.0% (earnings) - Financials: Lloyds Banking Group [LLOY.UK] -3.0% (Q1 results, affirmed guidance) - Healthcare: Roche [ROG.CH] -2.5% (earnings), Evotec [EVT.DE] -33.5% (FY results and guidance) - Industrials: Volvo Car [VOLCARB.SE] -6.0% (Q1 results, affirms guidance), SSAB [SSABA.SE] +3.5% (earnings).

- Technology: ASM International [ASM.NL] +11.5% (Q1 earnings, its guidance above estimates; Texas Instruments guidance) - Utilities: Iberdrola [IBE.ES] +0.5% (Q1 results above estimates).

-Telecom: Orange [ORA.FR] -2.0% (Q1 results, below estimates, affirms guidance), KPN [KPN.NL] +0.5% (Q1 results, raises guidance).

Speakers

- ECB’s Nagel (Germany) stated that services inflation remained high, driven by continued strong wage growth. Stressed that would not necessarily see a series of rate cuts after June. Reiterated could not pre-commit to a rate path.

- Indonesia Central Bank (BI) Gov Warjiyo pre-rate decision press conference reiterated to strengthen policy mix in coordination with govt to ensure financial stability.

- Indonesia Central Bank Policy Statement noted that the rate hike was a pre-emptive, forward looking measure to ensure inflation stayed within target in 2024, 2025. Macroprudential, payment system policies remained pro-growth to support sustainable economic growth.

- OPEC Sec Gen Al Ghais commented that Namibian oil could help meet future oil demand.

Currencies/fixed income

- USD consolidated its recent soft tone following an improvement on the European PMI front on Tuesday. Focus turns to Friday’s release of US PCE data.

- EUR/USD hovered around the 1.07 level despite a better reading from the German IFO Survey.

- USD/JPY continued to stay below the pivotal 155 level near 34-year lows. Focus remains on the intervention threat. BOJ was said to be planning to discuss the impact of the Yen's currency rapid slide at this week's policy meeting. Dealers see the BOJ keeping policy steady this week and likely to signal a readiness to tighten policy again this year. However traders point out the BOJ’s ultra-cautious, data-dependent approach had limited any strengthening in the yen currency.

Economic data

- (FI) Finland Mar PPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -4.5% v -5.1% prior.

- (FI) Finland Mar Unemployment Rate: 9.0% v 7.8% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Mar Unemployment Rate: 9.2% v 8.5% prior; Unemployment Rate (seasonally adj): 8.6% v 8.2%e; Trend Unemployment Rate: 8.3% v 8.3% prior.

- (HU) Hungary Feb Average Gross Wages Y/Y: 14.1% v 14.3%e.

- (ES) Spain Feb Total Mortgage Lending Y/Y: +0.2% v -11.3% prior; Mortgage Approvals Y/Y: +3.8% v -10.3% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Apr Consumer Confidence: 103.8 v 101.1e; Business Confidence: 95.6 v 93.0 prior; Composite Confidence: 97.0 v 94.2 prior.

- (TR) Turkey Apr Real Sector (Manufacturing) Confidence: 103.5 v 103.5 prior; Real Sector Confidence (unadj): 106.1 v 104.4 prior; Capacity Utilization: 76.7% v 76.2% prior.

- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) raised the BI Rate by 25bps to 6.25% (not expected) to resume its tightening cycle.

- (DE) Germany Apr IFO Business Climate: 89.4 v 88.8e; Current Assessment Survey: 88.9 v 88.7e; Expectations Survey: 88.9 v 88.9e.

- (CH) Swiss Apr Expectations Survey: 17.6 v 11.5 prior.

- (IT) Italy Apr Consumer Confidence: 95.2 v 96.8e; Manufacturing Confidence: 87.6 v 89.2e; Economic Sentiment: 95.8 v 97.0 prior.

- (PL) Poland Mar Unemployment Rate: 5.3% v 5.3%e.

- (TW) Taiwan Mar M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.2% v 5.6% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.4% v 4.5% prior.

- (IS) Iceland Apr CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 6.0% v 6.8% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) opened book to sell EUR-denominated 30-year GB bond via syndicate; guidance seen +175bps to mid-swaps.

- (IN) India sold total INR270B vs. INR270B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK3.5B vs. SEK3.5B indicated in 2031 and 2033 Bonds.

- (NO) Norway sold NOK3.0B vs. NOK3.0B indicated in 3.625% Apr 2034 Bonds; Avg Yield: 3.86% v 3.51% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.84x v 2.59x prior.

- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €6.0B vs. €6.0B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills (3 tranches).

- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold €812.5M vs. €625M indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 3.69% v 3.83% prior; Bid to cover: 1.47x v 1.27x prior.

Looking ahead

- (RO) Romania Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 10.7% prior.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €4.0B in 2.2% Feb 2034 bunds.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of next bond auction (held on Tuesdays).

- 06:00 (UK) Apr CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -16e v -18 prior; Selling Prices: 20e v 21 prior; Business Optimism: No est v -3 prior.

- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell combined CZK8.0B in 2033 and 2035 bonds.

- 06:00 (RU) Russia OFZ Bond auction.

- 07:00 (US) Apr MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Apr 19th: No est v 3.3% prior.

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 91.3 prior.

- 07:00 (UK) Weekly PM Question time in House.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (US) Mar Preliminary Durable Goods Orders: 2.5%e v 1.3% prior; Durables (ex-transportation): 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Capital Goods Orders (non-defense/ex-aircraft): 0.2%e v 0.7% prior; Capital Goods Shipments (non-defense/ex-aircraft): 0.2%e v -0.6% prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Retail Sales M/M: +0.1%e v -0.3% prior; Retail Sales (ex-auto) M/M: 0.1%e v 0.5% prior.

- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Apr Business Confidence: -9.4e v -5.0 prior.

- 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar PPI M/M: No est v 2.9% prior.

- 10:00 (DE) ECB’s Schnabel (Germany).

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 2-Year FRN.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 17-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: 4.0%e v 8.5% prior.

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 5-Year Notes.

- 13:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Summary of Deliberations.

- 17:00 (KR) South Korea May Business Manufacturing Survey: No est v 73 prior; Non-Manufacturing Survey: No est v 69 prior.

- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Q1 Advance GDP (1st of 3 readings) Q/Q: 0.6%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.2% prior.

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