Note: Charts provided by Trading View

 

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

February, as you can see, remains considerably off worst levels and recently entered positive territory, trading 0.2 percent higher. Closing the month out at current prices, in the form of a hammer candle (bullish signal at troughs), is likely to excite candlestick enthusiasts.

Downstream, 1.1857/1.1352 represents demand; northbound, however, shines light on ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641).

In terms of trend, the primary uptrend has been in play since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

EUR/USD left behind a muted tone on Wednesday, establishing a relatively indecisive candle that ranged between 1.2174 and 1.2109.

1.2190 tops represent immediate resistance, with a break uncovering Quasimodo resistance from 1.2278. Any downside attempts will likely zero in on demand from 1.1923/1.2001—houses support at 1.1965—a previous Quasimodo resistance.

RSI action remains north of the 50.00 centreline, within striking distance of resistance at 60.30.

H4 timeframe:

Resistance at 1.2179 continues to hog the limelight on the H4 scale, a base fastened south of Quasimodo resistance at 1.2200 and resistance at 1.2214.

Bearish bets, should we navigate deeper waters today, could eventually direct price towards trendline support, extended from the low 1.1952.

H1 timeframe:

Heading into the early hours of US trading, H1 whipsawed through the 100-period simple moving average (1.2130) and shook hands with trendline support, coming in from the low 1.2023. Leaving the 1.21 figure unchallenged, bids shaped a firm floor off the aforesaid trendline and welcomed a wave of buying into the close.

Two nearby Quasimodo resistances lurk above at 1.2166 and 1.2177, respectively, sharing space with RSI resistance parked at 60.19.

Observed levels:

The non-committal tone from sellers on the daily scale, on top of monthly price displaying scope to scale higher, could have H4 buyers invade 1.2179 and 1.2200 resistances. This also places a question mark on H1 Quasimodo resistances around 1.2166 and 1.2177.

 

AUD/USD:

 

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Up by 4.3 percent, February is on track to conclude in the shape of a clear-cut bullish engulfing candle. Also technically appealing is the pair closing in on 0.8303/0.8082—a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support - 0.4776).

In the context of trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Upbeat risk sentiment, together with the US dollar index (DXY) finishing considerably off best levels, elevated AUD/USD Wednesday and clocked fresh multi-month highs. 

Consequent to the above, supply coming in from 0.8045/0.7985 (located south of monthly supply at 0.8303/0.8082) is now in the firing line.

In terms of the RSI indicator, the value entered overbought space in recent movement and is on the doorstep of resistance from 80.19.

H4 timeframe:

Aided by support at 0.7897 (a prior Quasimodo resistance level), the currency pair rallied and crossed swords with Quasimodo resistance at 0.7966 yesterday. Weak offers around this location unbolts the trapdoor to test the lower side of daily supply underlined above at 0.8045/0.7985.

H1 timeframe:

Recent hours observed a dominant surge of buying, enough to dethrone offers around 0.7950 resistance.

Next in line, in terms of resistance, we can see a 127.2% Fib extension at 0.7983, closely shadowed by a 161.8% Fib projection at 0.7987 and the key figure 0.80. Also technically visible is the RSI value penetrating overbought levels and shining light on resistance at 80.85.

Observed levels:

The trend on the daily timeframe is clearly in good shape, though resistance formed by way of the lower side of daily supply at 0.7985 and the H1 Fibs between 0.7983 and 0.7987, along with the 0.80 figure, deserves attention.

A 0.7950 retest could pull in a short-term bullish scenario, with dip-buyers likely welcoming the move, targeting 0.7985/0.80ish as an initial upside objective.

 

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following January’s bullish engulfing candle, buyers have attempted to find some grip in February, up by 1.2 percent.

Descending resistance (not considered traditional trendline resistance) governs the spotlight to the upside, etched from the high 118.66, whereas support inhabits 101.70.

Daily timeframe:

The US dollar gained for a second successive session versus the Japanese yen on Wednesday, supported amidst a risk-on narrative. USD/JPY bulls also took cues from a rally in US Treasury yields, despite a weaker DXY.

Price action snapped back above the 200-day simple moving average at 105.48, addressing supply from 106.33/105.78 and pulling the RSI indicator’s value off support at 57.00.

H4 timeframe:

As evident from the H4 chart, upside slowed ahead of resistance at 106.11—October 7 peak—on Wednesday, marginally paring gains into the close. North of here, a 127.2% Fib projection can be seen at 106.44, whereas further selling could eventually bring light to a nearby trendline support, etched from the low 102.59.

H1 timeframe:

Going into US trade on Wednesday, price whipsawed through 106 and touched gloves with Quasimodo resistance at 106.09. Subsequent selling from 106.09 should not surprise. Not only were H1 sellers likely fading sell-stops north of 106, H4 sellers from the 106.11 resistance were possibly active.

The next downside objective resides at 107.73, a previous Quasimodo resistance level, with a break perhaps shifting attention to demand at 105.47/105.56 (aligns with the 200-day simple moving average on the daily chart).

Observed levels:

107.73 support is likely to be tested on the H1 today, though whether buyers make a show (in line with the monthly timeframe) is difficult to estimate as daily price may seek a retest of the 200-day simple moving average around 105.48, consequently testing H1 demand at 105.47/105.56.

 

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following December’s 2.5 percent advance—movement that stirred major trendline resistance (2.1161)—February has refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen for three years.

In terms of trend structure, however, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way—April high, 2018.

In effect, 1.4376 represents the next upside objective on the monthly chart.

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Establishing a half-hearted shooting star pattern—a candlestick formation generally interpreted as a bearish signal at peaks—ahead of Quasimodo resistance at 1.4250, this could sponsor a retest at support from 1.4011.

The RSI continues to trek overbought terrain, reaching highs of 77.00 yesterday. Bear in mind, the indicator can remain overbought for prolonged periods in trending environments.

H4 timeframe:

Despite climbing above 1.42—for the first time since April 2018—price was unable to find acceptance above the big figure. This led to a test of demand at 1.4051/1.4099 (an important zone given it was likely within this area a decision was made to break 1.42), which, as you can see, has so far been welcomed by buyers.

South of current demand, traders will note demand at 1.4034/1.3989 (prior supply) and intersecting trendline support, drawn from the low 1.3566.

H1 timeframe:

In similar fashion to the H4 scale, H1 faded 1.42 in recent action and reconnected with the 1.41 figure.

Downstream, the 100-period simple moving average, currently circling 1.4061, offers possible support in the event 1.41 fails to hold. Below the SMA, we also see demand at 1.3995/1.4035, which houses the key figure 1.40.

With reference to the RSI indicator, the value formed hidden bullish divergence as price bumped heads with 1.41. With the RSI also crossing back above the 50.00 centreline, this suggests upside momentum may intensify.

Observed levels:

The bounce from 1.41 on the H1, aided by H4 demand at 1.4051/1.4099 as well as the clear uptrend GBP/USD is in right now and monthly price trading strongly north of trendline resistance, may be enough to spark buyer interest today and re-attempt to tackle the 1.42 region.

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