Dow has best day since April 2025 as Brent drops 8.7% after Vance blames the Iran war

EU mid-market update: Dow has best day since April 2025 as Brent drops 8.7% after Vance blames the Iran war; hyperscalers rally while chips sell off and Kospi trips a sidecar; BoE expected to hike to 4.0%; Toyota and Maersk lift profit guidance.

The brief

- Markets read the midterms as a Democratic sweep that slows AI capex and raises the political cost of the Iran war, so investors rotated from AI hardware suppliers to the hyperscalers and domestic cyclicals: the Dow rose 3% to 53,356, while the SOX fell 3.8% and Eaton 9.9%, and Citrini’s “peak capex growth” note flagged stress in data-centre credit. Brent fell 8.7% after Vance blamed the war for Republican losses and Trump played down further strikes, while speculation grew about a Pentagon shake-up and a bigger role for Sergio Gor. Lower oil, softer Treasury refunding guidance that points to long-end supply cuts in H1 2027, and expected fiscal restraint pulled the 10-year yield down to 4.90%. BoE is still expected to hike to 4.00% today, though falling oil makes a third dissent or softer guidance the main risk, and France faces an OAT auction amid weak industrial output and €23.9B of deficit slippage as Germany’s orders recover. Japanese exporters such as Toyota and Sony raised guidance, with Toyota also boosting shareholder returns, and attention now turns to US jobless claims today and Friday’s payrolls, with a 64K private consensus.

Observations in full

- Investors bought the companies that pay for the AI buildout and sold the ones that supply it. The Dow rose 3.03% to 53,356, its best day since April 9, 2025, and the S&P 500 gained 1.58%. Microsoft rose 6.7%, Amazon about 7% intraday and Apple 5.3%. Nvidia fell 3.2%, the semiconductor index fell 3.8%, and Eaton fell 9.9%. A Democratic sweep of the states that permit data centres slows capex, which lifts hyperscalers’ free cash flow and cuts suppliers’ order books. The election moved value from the companies selling AI hardware to the companies buying it, and Eaton’s switchgear and transformer business is the most direct link to Texas’s permit pause. NEXTracker rose 11% as Democratic control favoured solar. Overnight, the selling reached Asia, where the Korea Exchange halted program trading for five minutes after Kospi 200 futures fell 5%. Hon Hai’s October revenue grew 45.7% y/y, faster than September’s 38.4%, so shipments already in production are not slowing. On its call, ARM said its confidence in up to $2B of AGI CPU revenue across FY27-28 has risen, with purchase orders through calendar 2027. That fits AMD’s view that the risk sits in 2028 and that 2027 deliveries hold.

- Citrini’s 10th “State of the Themes” is circulating with the line “peak capex growth”, and Wednesday’s trading had already moved its way. The firm, whose index has returned more than 2.5x the S&P 500 since May 2023, rebuilt its portfolio around reversals, pairs and new themes. It argues that hyperscaler capex near $1T annualized, against ecosystem ARR of at least $200B, needs revenue in the trillions to double again, and that hyperscalers can no longer fund it from cash flow. That fits the issuance pattern of the past fortnight: Oracle’s $20B of equity and debt, Alphabet’s 19-year euro bonds and Meta’s 38-year tranche. The note’s sharpest detail is credit. It says banks were left holding $15B of funded bridge loans to an Anthropic-backed data-centre project halted by the Texas moratorium, and that credit for neoclouds, high-yield private credit and BDCs without hyperscaler backstops has “ground to a total halt”. On delays it uses the terms “completion defaults” and “takeout risk”: build-out dates sliding past debt maturities. The midterm trade followed the same logic: suppliers fell as Eaton dropped 9.9% and the SOX 3.8%, while spenders and the real economy rallied, with Microsoft up 6.7%, financials 3.5% and discretionary 4.3%. The new themes, financials, “boomer” software survivors, alcohol and entertainment, lean toward the same rotation. The note does not call a recession. Citing the Fed Board’s Murray-Vidangos work, it puts the payroll breakeven at only 5-10K by late 2026 as net immigration turns negative, against a 3-month average of 51K. On that basis Friday’s 64K private consensus would still mean a tightening labour market. That leaves the inflationary late-cycle backdrop the BoE is expected to hike into today. It also says 9 of the 14 asset pairs it tracks show a stagflationary tilt, with cyclicals down 6.9% against defensives over six months.

- Vance and Trump gave two different readings of the Iran war’s role in the defeat, and oil traded Vance’s. Vance blamed the war, and the inflation it pushed through fuel prices, for the Republican losses, and Ohio, his former Senate seat, flipped to Brown. Fox News Digital reports that a White House meeting on Wednesday morning was meant to align the administration’s post-midterm message. Afterwards, Vance posted on X breaking with Trump on foreign policy. Fox News source said he is seeking an alliance with disaffected Trump voters and aiming his message at the “new right”, including a change in the nature of America’s relationship with Israel. The likely 2028 nominee is distancing himself from the war in public, within a day of the vote. Trump told the WSJ the war was partly to blame but that he “would have done it again”, and told the NYT it was a “very wise decision”. In the FT he played down the post-midterm strikes he had threatened, after saying in September that the war “ends right after the election”. Congress adds pressure. War funding has to pass in the lame-duck session before Dec 11, a Democratic House controls any supplemental from Jan 3, and a war powers resolution can now pass the Senate by simple majority, though it would face a veto. Tehran has reason to wait. Its chief negotiator said the result shows Americans reject the war, a day after Iran called Washington’s response “not satisfactory”.

- The administration is likely looking for someone to blame, and midterm precedent points at the Pentagon. Bush accepted Rumsfeld’s resignation on Nov 8, 2006, the day after a midterm wave driven by an unpopular war, and Trump fired Sessions the day after the 2018 midterms. That makes Hegseth the obvious exposure, even though Trump defended him yesterday. Dept of War Chief has been the public face of the Iran campaign, from the February strikes to this week’s “defensive” Qeshm operation. Reports citing 10 sources say confidant Sergio Gor has prepared for months for a reshuffle, with possible posts ranging from White House chief of staff to even senior roles at State, possibly Rubio’s. Gor ran presidential personnel before becoming ambassador to India and envoy for South and Central Asia, so his loyalty is to Trump personally, with no ties to either foreign-policy faction. If Gor gets State or the chief of staff job, and a new defense secretary comes in;/, the hawkish team that ran the Iran war would be gone within months of the vote. Brent’s drop and Vance’s break on Israel are pricing the same thing. A Pentagon change may move defence names and Gulf risk premia, and a Gor move would put an India specialist in charge of trade talks that New Delhi has kept open throughout the war.

- Oil had its biggest drop since the war began once the Iran war became a political cost. Brent fell 8.7% to $94.60 and WTI 8.3% to $88.12, below $100 for the first time in weeks. Vance blamed the war, which has pushed up inflation, for the Republican losses. Iran’s chief negotiator said the result showed Americans reject the war, and Trump told the FT that post-midterm strikes were unlikely, even as he told the WSJ he “would have done it again”. Two days after a $6 intraday range, Brent is now inside TD’s $90-100 fair value band, and Gulf exports were already up 10% in October. Maersk’s CEO said freight rates have “disconnected” from the Gulf, as the company raised its FY26 EBITDA guide to $14-14.5B from $10.5-12.5B, despite missing on Q3 EBIT of $3.27B against $3.61B expected. Air France-KLM’s Q3 adjusted operating profit rose 162%, and the jet fuel relief has not yet reached its guidance. South Korea said its Cheonghae navy unit will extend operations into waters near the Strait of Hormuz, so Seoul is still adding to its presence there. Gold rose about 2.9% to around $4,050 and silver about 4.4% as the dollar weakened.

- Treasury left room to cut long-end supply in the first half of 2027. The refunding dropped “at least” from its guidance and now holds coupon sizes “for the next several quarters”. Analysts read that as about two quarters, with the 20- and 30-year the likeliest to be cut and any increases concentrated in 2s to 7s. The 7-year moves to a quarterly cycle with two reopenings, and buybacks run up to $70B. Next week’s $125B refunding is $58B of 3s, $42B of 10s and $25B of 30s. The 10-year fell 5bps to 4.90%. Last month 10- and 30-year yields hit their highest since 2002, and Zillow said mortgage rates rose nearly 100bps from mid-6% to mid-7% between end-June and early October, one of the steepest three-month rises since the 1980s. Lower long-end supply, Democrats limiting new deficit spending and lower oil all push long yields the same way. The October data allows it: ISM services eased to 54.5 from 54.9, ADP added 86K against 75K expected, and Friday’s private payroll consensus is 64K. Japan’s 10-year JGB sale averaged 2.768%, 33bps below October’s 3.101%, although the bid-to-cover fell to 3.21x from 3.76x.

- The BoE is expected to hike while oil is falling. Consensus has a 25bps rise to 4.00% at 12:00 UK time on a 7-2 vote, with Taylor and Dhingra seen as the holdouts. September CPI was 3.5% against the Bank’s July forecast of 3.0%, and the Times shadow MPC voted 9-0 for a hike. Markets price three to four more hikes in 2027, toward 4.75-5.00%, but that pricing was set with Brent above $100. A $9 drop in two days takes about half the energy-driven inflation overshoot out of the new forecasts’ starting point, so a third dissent or softer guidance is the risk for gilts and sterling. Sweden’s October CPI came in at 0.9% against 1.2% expected, flat m/m, so disinflation in the north is diverging from the UK.

- German industry is recovering while France’s weakens. German September factory orders rose 4.4% m/m, up 3.3% y/y and in line with forecasts. French industrial production fell 0.5% against +0.3% expected, -1.3% y/y. This follows France’s 46.2 services PMI against Germany’s 52.5. Leonardo raised its new-orders guide to about €29.5B from €28.2B, part of the defence spending behind Germany’s order book. France’s long OAT auction comes today, the day after a deficit slippage of €23.9B was disclosed during the budget debate and with the Nov 17 first-reading deadline ahead. The OAT-Bund spread is now driven by the growth gap as well as politics.

- Japanese exporters are raising guidance and shareholder returns while assuming a stronger yen. Toyota raised its FY operating income guide to ¥3.9T from ¥3.4T and now expects y/y profit growth. It lowered its USD/JPY assumption to 157 while cutting its revenue and global volume guides, so the profit upgrade comes from pricing and costs. Its buyback rises to ¥1.3T, with ¥11-14T of total shareholder returns planned for April 2026 to March 2031, following Mitsubishi Corp’s ¥1T buyback a day earlier. Sony raised its FY guide, with H1 operating profit of ¥1.10T against ¥768.9B, and said suppliers have agreed the memory volumes it needs for projected FY27 hardware sales. That puts Sony’s console supply ahead of PC makers in the memory queue. Cirrus Logic said PC headwinds “have not eased” since August, with OEMs delaying launches of models that carry more Cirrus content, and AMD plans for PC units to fall double digits in 2027. Nintendo’s H1 revenue fell to ¥966B from ¥1.10T, but operating profit rose to ¥216.5B.

- European earnings: buybacks and affirmations alongside revenue misses. Deutsche Telekom’s Q3 net income was €3.0B against €2.9B expected, and it plans a €2B buyback in 2027. Siemens Healthineers’ adjusted EBIT of €1.08B was slightly below €1.10B expected, and the company will rename itself Healthineers. Commerzbank’s operating profit of €1.31B missed €1.34B. ArcelorMittal’s adjusted EPS almost doubled to $1.15, but revenue of $16.5B missed $17.1B. Diageo’s Q1 organic revenue grew 1.4% and it affirmed its FY27 outlook. BT’s H1 revenue fell to £8.75B from £9.81B while EBITDA held at £4.1B, and it affirmed its outlook. Skanska beat on operating profit of SEK2.1B.

- China and emerging markets. MOFCOM said it hopes the US will “make efforts together with China”, and Vice Premier Ding told the import expo that China’s overall tariff level is now 7.3%. The PBOC set the yuan fix stronger at 6.7156, and Monday’s FX reserve-requirement increase is still slowing the yuan’s rise. Philippine October CPI rose to 7.8%, and Colombia’s central bank staff raised their 2026 inflation forecast to 7.1%, showing how much of the oil shock is still feeding into emerging-market prices. Indonesia’s Q3 GDP grew 5.5% y/y against 5.2% expected, and Bank Negara held at 2.75%. Investor Ackland ran an aftermarket bookbuild for up to 9.9% of NextDC at A$9.50, building a stake in a data-centre operator while US suppliers sold off.

- Cross-asset: The midterms moved value from AI hardware to the hyperscalers and domestic cyclicals: Dow +3%, SOX -3.8%, Eaton -9.9% and a Kospi sidecar. Vance tying the losses to the Iran war took Brent down 8.7% to $94.60, inside its $90-100 fair value band, which helps airlines, shipping costs and the inflation outlook. Treasury’s softer refunding wording points to long-end cuts in H1 2027, and with fiscal restraint and lower oil the 10-year is down to 4.90%. The BoE is expected to hike to 4.00% at noon with oil $9 lower than two days ago, so the vote split and guidance matter for gilts. France’s industrial weakness and €23.9B deficit slippage meet today’s OAT auction, while Toyota and Sony raised guidance and shareholder returns in Japan. Still to come: BoE at 12:00 UK and US jobless claims today, then payrolls Friday with a 64K private consensus.

- Asia closed mixed with KOSPI underperforming -5.3%. EU indices +0.3-1.1%. US futures -0.5% to +0.5%. Gold +1.6%, DXY 0.0%; Commodity: Brent +1.7%, WTI +0.6%; Crypto: BTC +2.3%, ETH +3.9%.

Asia

- South Korea Sept Current Account Balance: $61.5B v $46.1B prior.

- Japan Oct Final Services PMI: 51.7 v 52.0 prelim (confirms 24th month of expansion).

- Australia Sept Trade Balance (A$): 2.8B v 1.0Be; Exports M/M: 2.3% v 3.1% prior; Imports M/M: -3.3 v +6.2% prior.

- Japan sold 10-year JGB Bonds; Avg Yield: 2.7680% v 3.1010% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.21x v 3.76x prior.

- Japan BOJ Sept Minutes (2 decisions ago): Members agreed it was appropriate that the bank continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.

Europe

- SNB Pres Schlegel stated that was watching closely for second round effects. The latest Oct CPI reading of 1.5% was higher than even the SNB expected.

Americas

- Trump said to be asking advisers if Defense Sec Hegseth should be terminated. Considering replacing Hegseth with Ron DeSantis.

- US VP Vance said the Iran war contributed to Republicans losing the midterms and was not worth losing control of Congress.

- Brazil Central Bank (BCB) left the Selic Target Rate unchanged at 13.75% (as expected) for its 1st pause in 6 decisions under the current easing cycle. Decision to keep policy steady was unanimous.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE +0.84% at 10,920.00, DAX +0.37% at 26,577.50, CAC-40 +0.93% at 8,254.29, IBEX-35 +1.42% at 19,646.20, FTSE MIB +0.09% at 51,076.50, SMI +0.23% at 15,056.80, S&P 500 Futures -0.09%].

Market focal points/key themes: European equities extend the post-midterm relief rally toward August highs, with the STOXX 600 up about 0.5% after its steepest one-day gain since June, the FTSE 100 up 0.8%, the CAC 40 up 0.9%, the IBEX 35 up 1.4% and the DAX up 0.4%, as a Democratic sweep of both chambers cuts the odds of unilateral tariffs and further inflationary fiscal shocks and pulls crude lower, easing costs for Europe’s energy-sensitive manufacturers and consumer names. Earnings dispersion is wide, with Lanxess surging about 19.5% as Q3 free cash flow turned positive and FY EBITDA moved to the top of its €450M to €500M range, GN Store Nord up 13% on a 34.4% margin versus 27.8% expected, and Air France-KLM up 10.5% on a €1.35B Q3 operating profit against €1.1B consensus, while Rheinmetall collapses about 16.5% after cutting 2026 revenue guidance to roughly €13.2B from €13.7B to €14.2B and Maersk falls 8.5% in a sell-the-news reaction to a Q3 EBITDA of $4.7B against roughly $5.04B expected. AI supply-chain demand lifts physical-infrastructure names, as Legrand gains 5.5% on data-centre sales up nearly 40% and a second guidance raise this year, though Arm’s 4% fall on a marginal Q3 revenue guide weighs on the DAX and Soitec (-4%), ASML and ASM International (-1.5% each) slip on fears that Democratic scrutiny could slow data-centre expansion, with defence derating also hitting Hensoldt and Leonardo (-2.5% each) and Deutsche Telekom losing 2% as a €2B buyback and €1.10 dividend undershoot expectations. The macro calendar adds a hawkish overlay, with the BoE widely expected to lift Bank Rate 25 bps to 4.00% in its first hike in three years on imported inflation from the US-Iran conflict, aligning it with the Fed and ECB, while hundreds of thousands of protesters and public-sector strikes in France test Macron five months before the presidential election, and Diageo (+3.5%), BT (+5.5%) and Next (+0.5%) show UK consumer and telecom resilience.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: Air France-KLM [AF.FR] +10.5% (Q3 operating profit of €1.35bn beat €1.1bn consensus as premium and Asia demand offset higher fuel costs), JCDecaux [DEC.FR] +6.0% (Q3 organic revenue grew 6.6%, digital and programmatic sales accelerated and Q4 organic growth was guided to around 6%), ASOS [ASC.UK] +5.5% (swung to a £24.4m pretax profit, EBITDA beat consensus and FY27 guidance of £180m–£200m exceeded expectations), Vistry Group [VTY.UK] +2.5% (reiterated £125m FY adjusted pretax-profit guidance versus £122m consensus while progressing its restructuring), Next [NXT.UK] +0.5% (Q3 full-price sales grew 8.1% versus 5.8% guidance and the FY sales-growth forecast was raised to 7.3% from 6.7%).

Healthcare: GN Store Nord [GN.DK] +13.0% (Q3 margin reached 34.4% versus 27.8% expected, Hearing growth beat forecasts and the divestiture tax estimate was cut to DKK300m–500m from DKK1.5bn–2.0bn), Ambu [AMBU-B.DK] +6.5% (Q4 organic revenue grew 13.9%, EBIT margin reached 17.2% and FY27 guidance was paired with a DKK400m buyback), Siemens Healthineers [SHL.DE] +2.5% (Q4 revenue of €6.78bn beat expectations and FY27 adjusted EPS was guided to €2.20–€2.40 despite a slight EBIT miss).

Technology: RS Group [RS1.UK] +6.5% (H1 sales and EBITA beat consensus by 4%, with organic growth across every region and a 50bp margin expansion), Soitec [SOI.FR] -4.0%, ASML [ASML.NL] -1.5%, ASM International [ASM.NL] -1.5%, Infineon [IFX.DE] -1.0% (European chip names tracked Asian weakness on concerns that increased US Democratic scrutiny could slow AI and data-centre expansion).

Telecom: BT Group [BT.A.UK] +5.5% (H1 pretax profit rose 12%, Openreach full-fibre demand hit a record, guidance was reconfirmed and the interim dividend increased), Deutsche Telekom [DTE.DE] -2.0% (a Q3 beat and guidance increase were eclipsed by a €2bn buyback and €1.10 dividend that fell short of expectations).

Energy: Harbour Energy [HBR.UK] -4.0% (profit-taking despite raising production guidance and FY free-cash-flow outlook by $800m and announcing another $150m buyback), Engie [ENGI.FR] -0.5% (9M results put FY recurring net income at the upper end of guidance, but economic net debt reached €62.5bn and Belgian nuclear talks were extended).

Consumer staples: Diageo [DGE.UK] +3.5% (Q1 organic sales grew 1.4% versus a 0.4% decline expected, with North America materially better than forecast).

Industrials/defence: Legrand [LR.FR] +5.5% (9M organic sales grew 12.7%, data-centre sales rose nearly 40% and FY targets were raised), Rheinmetall [RHM.DE] -16.5% (cut 2026 revenue guidance to about €13.2bn from €13.7bn–€14.2bn, lowered its margin and cash-conversion outlooks, while JPMorgan cut its PT to €1,150 from €1,350 and retained Negative Catalyst Watch), A.P. Moller-Maersk [MAERSK-B.DK] -8.5% (Q3 EBITDA of $4.7bn missed the roughly $5.04bn consensus despite a major FY guidance increase, triggering a sell-the-news reaction), Leonardo [LDO.IT] -2.5% (strong 9M earnings and orders were offset by unchanged revenue and EBITA guidance and continued Aerostructures cash absorption), Hensoldt [HAG.DE] -2.5% (raised 2026 revenue guidance to about €2.8bn, still below consensus above €2.9bn, amid a broader defence-sector derating).

Financials: Commerzbank [CBK.DE] -2.5% (Q3 operating profit missed consensus and the maintained FY net-profit target of at least €3.4bn trailed market expectations), BPER Banca [BPE.IT] -1.0% (Q3 pre-provision profit beat, but commission income missed and operating costs exceeded consensus).

Materials: Lanxess [LXS.DE] +19.5% (Q3 sales rose 9.6%, EBITDA increased 11.2%, free cash flow turned positive and FY EBITDA is now expected at the upper end of €450m–€500m), ArcelorMittal [MT.NL] +5.0% (Q3 EBITDA of $2.02bn beat the $1.89bn consensus despite weaker sales and sizeable impairments), Croda International [CRDA.UK] +4.5% (Q3 organic sales grew 6.6%, Consumer Care advanced 10.8% and FY operating-profit guidance was maintained), Heidelberg Materials [HEI.DE] +7.0% (Q3 revenue increased 10% and operating result rose 9%, while the group expanded its cost-savings programme), IMCD [IMCD.NL] -2.5% (Q3 EBITA merely matched consensus, organic revenue growth slowed to 5.5% from 7.5% and free cash flow fell 15%).

Speakers

- Norway Central Bank Policy Statement reiterated its stance that likely to keep policy rate elevated for a time and was prepared to raise the Deposit Rate if warranted by the inflation outlook. Mid-East conflict was still creating substantial uncertainty.

- ECB’s Schnabel (Germany) noted that fiscal stress must not hijack monetary policy. Rising public debt and the rapid expansion of non-bank finance could curb the ECB's ability to set the appropriate monetary policy.

- French union unite said to be planning nationwide strikes.

- RBA Dep Gov Hauser noted that Board discussions were quite lively at last policy decision; faced hard choices.

- Malaysia Central Bank Policy Statement noted that its policy stance was consistent with outlook of continued price stability. Would remain vigilant to cost pressures and domestic demand conditions. Geopolitical developments, others expected to exert upward pressure on inflation.

- Iran and Oman Foreign Ministers reportedly again discuss arrangements to secure sea routes and keep trade and energy flowing. Measures shift from de-escalation to lasting agreements.

Currencies

- USD remained on soft footing following the results of the US mid-term elections. Bon yield lower and aided by lower oil on hopes for an end to the US-Iran war.

- GBP/USD just below 7-week highs ahead of the BOE rate decision. Rate hike looks to be a done deal as energy prices had shown few signs of retreating before the US mid-term elections. Move viewed as a 'safety first' event to offset the threat of second round effects as inflation was on course to rise above 4% in 2027.

- EUR/USD at 1.1240 by mid-session with USD/JOY at 158.20.

- The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.35%, France 10-year Oat at 4.74% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.09%; 10-year Treasury yield: 4.86%; 10-year JGB: 2.76%.

Economic data

- (RU) Russia Oct Services PMI: 50.1 v 51.3 prior (3rd month of expansion); Composite PMI: 50.0 v 50.8 prior.

- (DE) Germany Sept Factory Orders M/M: 4.4% v 4.5%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.3%e.

- (SE) Sweden Oct Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.2%e.

- (SE) Sweden Oct CPIF M/M: 0.0% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.4%e.

- (SE) Sweden Oct CPIF (ex-energy) M/M: -0.2% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.5%e.

- (NO) Norway Q3 Average Monthly Earnings Y/Y: 4.1% v 3.9% prior.

- (MY) Malaysia Central Bank (BNM) left its Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at 2.75% (as expected).

- (ZA) South Africa Oct PMI (whole economy): 49.0 v 49.0 prior.

- (FR) France Sept Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -0.3%e.

- (FR) France Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.5% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.2% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Sept Retail Sales (ex-auto) Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.8%e.

- (CH) Swiss Oct Unemployment Rate: 3.0% v 3.0%e; Unemployment Rate (seasonally adj): 3.1% v 3.1%e.

- (TW) Taiwan Oct CPI Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.6%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3%e; PPI Y/Y: 19.7% v 18.3% prior.

- (TW) Taiwan Oct Foreign Reserves: $596.4B v $600.8B prior.

- (DE) Germany Oct Construction PMI: 41.6 v 43.5 prior.

- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) left Deposit Rate unchanged at 4.50% (as expected) to resume its pause under the current phase of its tightening cycle.

- UK) Oct New Car Registrations Y/Y: 5.4% v 12.0% prior.

- (IT) Italy Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 0.5% prior.

- (UK) Oct Construction PMI: 43.6 v 46.5e (22nd month of contraction).

- (EU) Euro Zone Sept PPI M/M: 2.5% v 2.5%e; Y/Y: 11.1% v 10.6%e.

- (CY) Cyprus Oct CPI M/M: 1.1% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.4% v 3.7% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.466B vs. €4.5-5.5B indicated range in 2031, 2036 and 2041 SPGB bonds.

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €426M vs. €250-750M indicated range in 0.70% Nov 2033 inflation-linked bonds (SPGBei).

- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total €11.99B vs. €10.0-12.0B indicated range in 2036, 2038, 2043 and 2057 Bonds.

Looking ahead

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (US) Oct Challenger Total Job Cuts: No est v 43.3K prior; Job Cuts Y/Y: No est v -19.9% prior.

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-month Bills.

- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Sept Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -7.1% prior; Consumption Y/Y: No est v -1.1% prior.

- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise the Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.00%.

- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Nov Minutes.

- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Quarterly Monetary Policy Report (staff Projections).

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Industrial Production M/M: -0.3%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: -1.9%e v -1.2% prior.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Gross Fixed Investment M/M: -0.5%e v +1.4% prior; Y/Y: 6.5%e v 6.6% prior; Private Consumption Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.1% prior.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Consumer Confidence: 45.3e v 45.1 prior.

- 07:00 (CL) Chile Sept Nominal Wage Y/Y: No est v 7.6% prior.

- 07:30 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Gov Bailey post rate decision press conference.

- 07:40 (CH) SNB's Schlegel.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Services PMI: No est v 49.2 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 47.4 prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (US) Q3 Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity: 2.7%e v 1.4% prior; Unit Labor Costs: 0.4%e v 1.2% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 196Ke v 194K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.71Me v 1.701M prior.

- 08:30 (CZ) Czech Central Bank (CNB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise the 2-Week Repurchase Rate by 25bps to 4.00%.

- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales.

- 08:50 (US) Fed’s Hammack.

- 09:00 (CZ) (CZ) Czech Central Bank (CNB) post rate decision press conference.

- 09:00 (UK) BOE 7-day short-term repo operation (STR).

- 09:10 (US) Fed’s Barkin.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories.

- 10:40 ECB’s Lane (Ireland, chief economist).

- 11:00 (EU) ECB chief Lagarde.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 8-Week Bills.

- 12:45 (DE) ECB’s Nagel (Germany).

- 13:00 (EU) ECB chief Lagarde with member Dolenc (Slovenia).

- 14:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Rate unchanged at 6.50%.

- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank (BCCh) Nov Minutes.

- 18:30 (JP) Japan Sept Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y: 3.8%e v 3.9% prior (revised from 3.9%); Real Cash Earnings Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.6% prior (revised from 1.5%); Cash Earnings - Same Sample Base Y/Y: No est v 2.8% prior; Scheduled Full-Time Pay - Same Base Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.9% prior (revised from 2.8%).

- 19:00 (US) Fed’s Logan.

- 20:00 (PH) Philippines Sept Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.3% prior.

- 21:30 (TH) Thailand Oct CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.3%e v 2.8% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.5% prior.

- 21:35 (CN) China to sell 1-year and 50-year Additional Bonds.

- 22:00 (ID) Indonesia Oct Foreign Reserves: No est v $146.3B prior.

- 22:30 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bills.