Despite Market Jitters, Fed to Raise Rates in December

U.S. Review

Despite Market Jitters, Fed to Raise Rates in December

An ephemeral trade truce, the inversion of the front-end of the yield curve and a softer than expected jobs report fueled fears of the economy slowing. But, with economic data this week suggesting a relatively healthy economy, we still expect the Fed to raise rates at its meeting on December 19.

he ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys point to robust activity. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 155,000 in November, and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. But, while this report points to some softening in the labor market, we note that other measures suggest the overall jobs picture remains relatively strong.

Global Review

Perfect Example of He Said, Xi Said

The much anticipated meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi at last week’s G20 led to a 90-day ceasefire in tariff hikes, although optimism for a longer-term trade deal is fading as confusion exists over what was agreed upon between the two countries.

China’s economy continues to show signs of slowing, while trade tensions are creating additional headwinds. Heading into 2019, we expect the deceleration to endure, while pending November retail sales and industrial production data may provide further insight into the pace of the slowdown.

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