Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Danish card and MobilePay data shows spending up by around 10% for weeks leading up to November 20th. Accounting for price developments and changes in cash spending, this amounts to spending at 5-6% above 2019. It is worth noting, that we are so far not seeing signs of a slowdown in total spending in physical locations, despite a rapid increase in Danish infection rates over the past few weeks.
Restaurant spending remains surprisingly strong, despite the introduction of new restrictions (the reintroduction of the negative test or vaccination certificates). One point of note is, that restaurant spending among people over the age of 65, has been trending down slightly since early November. However, it remains above normal for this time of year, and for all other age groups there are no signs of a reaction yet.
One area where we are seeing a clear reaction is in travel spending, which has weakened significantly over the last month, indicating that people are reluctant to plan long term in light of rising infection rates both domestically and abroad.
Retail spending continues to perform well. Surprisingly there are still no signs of weakness stemming from supply issues in retail items like electronics. However, this could be due to price effects, and people moving up their holiday shopping.
Spending in gas stations continues to pick up, as prices rise further. Compared to this time last year, gas spending is taking up 1 percentage point more of total spending.
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