December is normally not a good month for the Dollar

Good Day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to one and all! Yes, I will end my writings this week today.... As I've advertised many times, I leave for Little Rock Ark, tomorrow, to get ready for my son Alex's wedding on Saturday... I mentioned to Alex when he and Grace announced the date, that it was Peal Harbor Day... He laughed and said, " I bet not many people that I know, realize that!" That got me thinking.... But we don't have the time or space for me to go into that rant this morning, so you'll just have to imagine what I would say about that! The Stephen Kummer Trio greets me this morning with their version of the song: When My Heart Finds Christmas.... I hope it finds you.

Well, yesterday was a dud for dollar traders.... As the BBDXY started the day down 2 index points at 1,281, and then proceeded to remain at 1,281 all day, and close there too! I came across this on Bloomberg.com and thought it was interesting.

"The US currency has advanced about 2% since the Nov. 5 election, but seasonality shows the odds are stacked against it from here. The greenback posted losses in eight of the last 10 Decembers, often a victim of year-end portfolio rebalancing flows and the so-called Santa Rally that emboldens traders to sell dollars for riskier assets like stocks.

The chances of outsized, sudden swings are greater this time around with the risk of US president-elect’s social media posts roiling markets, unnerving traders in a month that also has nine major central bank policy meetings and a deluge of key economic data."

Chuck again.... Well, having days like yesterday, don't seem to be playing along with the history of dollar trading this month... But then it's just one day, and the selling has to start someplace!  

The price of Gold, which was up $14 to start the day, saw some short paper trading knock it down to just a gain of $4, to close the day at $2,643.20... Silver was up 42-cents to start the day, and short paper trading also knocked Silver down to a gain of 29-cents, to close at $31.07

The price of Oil rebounded from the selloff over the Thanksgiving weekend, and gained a buck to $69.98, almost a $2 gain... I can see an Oil trading desk with someone saying yesterday, "Hey! Wait a minute with this selling of Oil, we still have the problems in the Middle East, what are we thinking?"  The 10-year's yield rose to 4.23% yesterday, so at least the bon buying stopped for a day... 

In the overnight markets last night.... The dollar got bought, but not by a huge margin.... The BBDXY is up almost 2 index points this morning at 1,282.90... The French had a vote of no confidence, which might mean the government gets dissolved, and that news really weighed on the euro overnight.... As the single unit is on pace to drop below 1.05 today.... Gold starts today down almost $2, and Silver starts the day down 25-cents.... I have something for you on Gold & Silver in the FWIW section today, be sure to drop by and read it!  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $69 handle overnight... Word on the street is that the peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon has seen fighting back and forth once again... So, that has helped the price of Oil to stop falling. The ten-year Treasury's yield rises again and trades this morning with a 4.26% yield... the brief downward movement o f the 10-year's yield seen earlier this week, was all a reaction to the news that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel was buying the Treasury yield curve to keep rates in line..... 

Remember when I wrote about how Andrew Maguire had thought that the short selling of Gold & Silver was coming to an end?  Well, Ed Steer told me yesterday that there were more than 10,000 short contracts in Gold added last week! When there are more short positions representing more ounces of Gold than are above the ground, you scratch your head and ask the question.... Why? In the last scorecard on the number of ounces that short, it would take 75 days of production to equal the short ounces, in Silver, and 45 days of production of Gold to equal the short positions.... I shake my head in disgust that the COMEX has allowed all this to happen and has nothing to deter the short paper traders.... I think instead of repealing 1913, we should work on eliminating the regulation board at the COMEX....  They don't do anything anyway! 

I'm so jaded about regulators these days... It all started with the CFP (consumer financial protection) led by rep. Warren.... They dug a deep hole in us at EverBank World Markets, and I'll never forget that!  But they were going after the wrong bunch... We did everything to explain exactly how the consumer would be charged, but they found fault with it.... UGH!  That was so long ago that I was still the President of World Markets.... I left in 2016, 8 years ago..... 

OK, enough of my whining!  

What the heck is going on in S. Korea? The S. Korean President first announced Marshall Law for the country yesterday, and then about an hour later he reversed that decision.... Now the Asian markets are all tied up and worried about S. Korea.... Nothing like dropping a at among the pigeons, eh? 

And Ed Steer tells me this morning that the Copper price saw a ton of short selling yesterday; after reaching $4.25, I don't have to tell you what happened to the price of Copper after all those short Copper trades were entered..... 

I don't have a lot else to talk about this morning, so I'll head to the Big Finish..... 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had just the Job Openings from Rocktober, and they increased from 7.7 Million to 7.9 Million.... Today's Data Cupboard has the ADP Employment Report, which is forecast to be 163,000.... In addition, we'll also see the color of the Rocktober Factory Orders, which will most likely remain negative... And then finally, the Fed's Beige Book will print....  I don't see anything there that would make me want to buy dollars..... I'm just saying....

To recap.... The dollar began the day at 1,281 in the BBDXY Dollar Index, and it closed yesterday at 1,281... So, a real dud of a day for the dollar bugs.... Chuck talks about how many days of production it would take to fill the ounces should short in Gold & Silver, and asks the question, what should we do with the regulation board of the COMEX? He also asks, why all these shorts?

Here's your snippet: "In 2023, global silver production was approximately 26,000 metric tons. During the same period, gold production was around 3,000 metric tons.

So 8.6x more silver is mined annually than gold. Yet gold trades at about 86x the price of silver today ($2,633/oz for gold and $30.60/oz for silver).

What explains this disconnect? The primary differentiator is the fact that central banks buy and hold large quantities of gold. Global central banks and governments hold approximately 36,700 tons, or roughly 17% of all gold ever mined.

It doesn’t really seem like that much – just 17%. But that percentage makes a world of difference in markets. Even single-digit moves in supply/demand can dramatically impact hard asset prices. When central banks hold nearly a fifth of global supply and are buying more, that matters greatly.

Gold remains a monetary asset today, and I believe there’s a good chance we return to some version of the gold standard in the future.

Silver, on the other hand, has lost its monetary mojo (for now).

Yet historically, both gold and silver were money. Take a look at this infographic which shows the gold/silver ratio at various points in history.

For much of history, gold was used for large purchases such as real estate, and silver for everyday expenses. Even up until 1964 in the US, silver was an important part of our coinage.

I believe that eventually, silver will also re-emerge as a personal monetary asset. Individual investors will catch on that we’re headed for a financial reset.

They will want to put their money into something analog. A hard asset that can’t be hacked.

But some people want something with more upside than gold, while still offering the safety of precious metals.

Silver fits the bill beautifully."

Chuck again.... Well, apparently, he has some Silver for sale! Just kidding.... He fails to tell us why Silver will become the preferred metal to buy...  So, I'll stick with my question.... Got Gold?

Market Prices 12/4/2024: American Style: A$ .6405, kiwi .5835, C$ .7110, euro 1.0500, sterling 1.2676, Swiss 1.1280, European Style: rand 18.4457, krone 11.0704, SEK 11.0036, forint 394.60, zloty 4.0843, koruna 23.9910, RUB 104.30, yen 150.99, sing 1.3468, HKD 7.7845, INR 84. 74, China 7.2691, peso 20.30, BRL 6.0678, BBDXY 1,282, Dollar Index 106.51, Oil $69.91, 10-year 4.26%, Silver $30.82, Platinum $939.00, Palladium $968.00 Copper $4.18, and Gold.... $2,642.96. 

That's it for today and this week.... When I return, I'll be attending a holiday get together hosted by Frank Trotter, Chris Lissner, and John Dubinsky.... I think I already told you that this is a gathering of folks from Mark Twain Bank and EverBank... I've only missed one of these through the years, and I was in the hospital, so I had an excuse! Our Blues played the best hockey I've seen them play this year last night and won their game 4-1 over the Jets.... The first game of a 4-game road trip for the Blues, so they got the trip off right! My beloved Mizzou Tigers won their basketball game VS Cal, last night, and the Billikens will play their next game Thursday night.... The Stephen Kummer Trio takes us to the finish line today with their version of the song: The Christmas Waltz (my favorite Christmas song to listen to) I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday and rest of the week and remember to Be Good To Yourself!