Currency market: USD/JPY, AMC, ECB and trading opportunities next week

Brian Twomey Brian's Investment

NZD/USD's weekly trade target written Sunday at 0.6723 achieved its destination and traded to 0.6731 for an extra 8 pips. From 0.6613 at the Sunday open, the trade ran 110 pips to 0.6723.

AMC stock, wrong on 2 posts. Correct yesterday as written at btwomey.com. As posted, 20.35,19.65 Vs 18.24 and 17.54. Actual 20.93 to 17.84. Required is 6 numbers to cover the gaps.

AMC today's day trade to short tops and long bottoms: 20.93, 19.38, 18.61, 17.84, 17.06, 16.29. Correct today and perfect every day forward. Required is minutes to factor and voila rather than gazillions video hours. Where currency day trades end then individual stocks and the S&P's begin.

EUR/USD held its levels all week as written Sunday: EUR/USD vital levels were located 1.1384, 1.1385 Vs 1.1524, 1.1530. EUR/USD traded 1.1494 to 1.1368 and violated 1.1384 by 16 pips.

USD/CAD as written Sunday, 1.2630, 1.2640 and 1.2651 Vs 1.2826. Actual this week traded 1.2756 to 1.2636.

USD/JPY weekly trade

USD/JPY short 115.56 and 115.63 to target 114.53. USD/JPY achieved 115.56 and 115.63 yet traded to 116.33 highs or off by 70 pips. For the 3rd time in 11 weekly trades, we're forced to add 1 lot and trade to target. This is a bonus as USD/JPY offers the 3rd time for extra profit pips.

USD/JPY begins next week severe overbought. Today's close price doesn't matter from high 115.00's to 116.00's as USD/JPY will remain overbought.

Overbought GBP/NZD traded lower by 273 pips and 270 for EUR/NZD. GBP/NZD opened this week at 2.0436 and 1.7298 for EUR/NZD or a spread of 3100 pips. Current GBP/NZD trades 2.0383 and 1.7182 for EUR/NZD or 3200 pips. Correct is 2600 which means more big moves at 600 pips are ahead for both pairs.

GBP/NZD big line above is located at 2.0572 and 1.7342 for EUR/NZD. Deeply overbought EUR/NZD is the leader pair to assist GBP/NZD lower.

The winners this week were EUR/AUD as it traded 362 pips from 1.6204 to 1.5842 and GBP/AUD 334 pips from 1.9135 to 1.8801.

For next week EUR/AUD 1.5866, GBP/AUD 1.8836 and AUD/USD 0.7191 are crucial levels for longs and shorts.

JPY cross pairs currently trade in deep overbought except NZD/JPY. GBP/JPY as leader of JPY cross pairs targets easily 155.00's from current 157.00's.

GBP/USD traded a fairly neutral 150 pips this week, overbought GBP/JPY will assist next to take GBP/USD lower. GBP/USD big lines below are located 1.3449 and 1.3375. GBP/USD's problem is it lacks rangeability.

Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD trade oversold and long so far is the way next week. The problem pair for AUD/USD is overbought AUD/JPY while NZD/JPY trades neutral.

Overbought CAD/JPY will assist USD/CAD higher next week.

ECB and rates

Negative interest rates is the model from Silvio Gesell in the 1800's. Gesell was brilliant and factored how and why negative interest rates worked. See btwomey.com for Silvio Gesell writings and Gesell's recommended book the Natural Economic Order.

Negative interest rates are actually positive rates but factored from a scale below 0. The scale changed rather than the rates.

ECB's STIR overnight rate trades -0.572 to -0.55 or 0.428 to 0.45. ECB rates would never trade below FED rates at 0.08 and 0.25. Once the FED raises then the ECB will raise by a corresponding amount to match the FED.

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

GBP/USD nudges higher above 1.3350 despite Middle East turmoil

The GBP/USD pair rebounds to near 1.3385 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid cooler-than-expected UK inflation data and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Traders will take more cues from the UK Retail Sales report, which is due later on Friday.

EUR/USD advances ahead of ECB policy decision

EUR/USD extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.1410 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair gains ground as the Euro finds solid support ahead of the European Central Bank's upcoming interest rate decision.

Gold extends range play above $4,100 as inflation fears lift Fed hike bets and cap gains

Gold consolidates above the $4,100 round figure through the Asian session, and seems to have stalled its modest pullback from an over two-week high touched the previous day. Crude oil prices climb to a fresh high since June 11 amid a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, fueling inflation fears and bolstering US Fed interest rate hike expectations.

Hyperliquid, Robinhood could lead crypto’s next bull market as DeFi and TradFi converge

The next crypto bull market could be driven by the growing convergence between blockchain-based financial infrastructure and traditional finance, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. In a report published late Tuesday, Hougan argued that crypto may be showing early signs of a market bottom, with Bitcoin gaining 9% since July 1 even as the NASDAQ 100 declined 6%.

Ripple and Stellar await direction amid cautious sentiment

Ripple and Stellar trade cautiously as both tokens hover around key technical levels. XRP is testing resistance at its 50-day EMA, while XLM continues to consolidate around the $0.187 support zone. Meanwhile, mixed derivatives data with a slight bearish tilt suggests traders remain cautious, keeping the next directional move uncertain.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.