Crude Price Surges as US Expected to End Iran Import Waivers

Asian stocks were mixed in early trading as investors focused on the economic data and earnings expected this week. In Japan, the Nikkei rose by 100 points ahead of the important interest rates decision by the BOJ. In China, the Shanghai and Hang Seng declined by 50 and 160 points respectively. In Taiwan, the main average gained by more than 25 points. Around the world, most exchanges will be closed today as Easter celebrations continue.

In the United States, the country will release manufacturing PMI numbers and existing home sales data. The PMI data from Markit is expected to increase to 53.6 from the previous month’s 52.4. In the past few months, this PMI has been on a downward trajectory after peaking at 56.4 in June last year. The National Association of Realtors too will release its numbers. The existing home sales numbers for March is expected to decline to 5.31 million, which is lower than the previous 5.51 million. This will be a 2.3% decline.

The price of crude oil rose sharply as investors expect the US to end Iran import waivers. The Trump administration will soon force all importers of Iranian oil to end their imports or face U.S. sanctions. This was somewhat of an expected move since the imports were expected to end in May this year. The decision will lead to more tightening in an already tight crude oil market.

XTI/USD

The price of XTI/USD rose sharply to a high of $65.97. This was the highest level since November last year. On the hourly chart, this price is above the important resistance level of $64.63. It is also above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. The RSI has moved to above 70, while the Bulls Power too has continued to rise. The pair will likely continue moving higher as supply tightens. In the near term, the pair could test the important support of $70.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair traded at a tight range as investors looked ahead to the BOJ decision expected this week. The pair is trading at 111.90, which is where it ended the day on Friday. This level is along the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. With the pair trading in a narrow horizontal trend, there is a possibility that it will break out in either direction.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD moved slightly lower to an intraday low of 1.1236. This is lower than last Friday’s high of 1.1247. On the hourly chart, this price is below the 50-day and 25-day moving averages. The volumes are thin, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to almost the oversold level. The Money Flow Index (MFI) has declined to below 20. Today, the pair could remain within this narrow range as most markets remain closed.