Crude Oil’s bounce puts pressure on today’s Fed Minutes

Oil is back in focus as war risk returns and markets wait for today’s FOMC minutes.

Three tankers were reportedly hit by projectiles in or near the Strait of Hormuz.

News rundown:

• A U.S. official said initial indications suggested Iran had fired at three commercial vessels.
• The U.S. then reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales, cutting short a previous authorisation that had allowed Iranian oil sales until August 21, with a new wind-down deadline of July 17. Oil prices rose more than 5% after the sanctions announcement.
• In addition, U.S. launched fresh strikes on Iran as retaliation,  hitting more than 80 targets, including over 60 small boats linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
• Qatar also blamed Iran after a drone struck a Qatari LNG tanker and caused an engine-room fire, while a Saudi-flagged crude tanker was also reported damaged off Oman.

This puts war escalation risks, and by proxy, inflation risks back in the spotlight again.

Any prolonged disruption can lift energy prices and add pressure on consumers, governments and central banks.

WTI Crude July 8th, 2026 analysis

Technically, WTI is bouncing from the lower boundary of its descending channel.

The first realistic retest area is 77-84, with more emphasis on 77 and 80 because those have been clearer “reaction points” historically.

If oil can push through 84, the next area to watch is around 88.

But, oil probably needs another catalyst to move much higher.

Supply surge and demand decrease

Currently, the supply side is not fully supportive of a bigger rally.

OPEC+ agreed to raise output targets by 188,000 bpd from August, on top of similar increases for June and July.

It’s also reported that Saudi Arabia cut its August official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia, while Gulf output and exports through Hormuz were recovering. That is positive for supply availability, but it can cap oil prices unless geopolitical risk worsens again.

China demand also weakens the bullish case: crude imports fell to 6.36 million bpd in May, down from 8.10 million bpd in April, the weakest level since October 2016, according to Kpler data.

Another report said China was drawing on commercial inventories rather than bidding aggressively into a tight market, partly because refinery margins were deeply negative.

This gives oil a two-sided setup. War escalation supports the bounce, but OPEC+ supply and weaker China buying make it harder to argue for a clean bullish trend without another catalyst.

FOMC Minutes adds pressure to Oil’s recent surge

The FOMC minutes are scheduled for 18:00 UTC / 2:00 p.m. ET today, covering the June meeting.

The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% in June. Its statement said economic activity remained solid despite uncertainty linked partly to the Middle East conflict, and inflation remained elevated partly because of supply shocks, including energy.

That is why the minutes may lean hawkish, or at least not clearly dovish. If policymakers spent more time discussing sticky inflation, energy shocks and conflict uncertainty, markets may struggle to price a quick Fed pivot. But we still need to see the actual wording.

The US 2-year yield is already backing that idea technically. It is grinding higher along its 50 EMA band and remains inside a rising channel. If US02Y keeps rising after the minutes, markets may read the Fed as higher-for-longer.

DXY is also supported. The dollar is holding above its 1-day 20 EMA band and remains above the October 2025 lows. The next resistance to watch is around 102, which is the previous high.

What to watch now

• Oil holding the channel bottom.
• WTI retesting 77 and 80.
• US02Y staying supported on the 50 EMA band.
• DXY pushing toward 102.

For now, the end result is simple: oil is up, yields are firm, and the dollar stays supported.