Crude Oil still caught in a bear hug

The price of a barrel of WTI fell to $64 at the start of trading on Tuesday, while Brent fell to $66.7 at its lowest point at the start of active trading in Europe. Retreating to levels seen before the latest conflict, the price recouped the ‘war premium’. This was how the markets reacted to Iran’s relatively restrained response and the subsequent reports of a truce with Israel.
The sharp decline in prices indicates the continuing dominance of bears in the market, where the Middle East conflict triggers a 20% price increase. Still, a moderate response and Trump’s tweet nullify the entire war premium.

Although it should be acknowledged that technically, Oil has broken through this year’s downward trend resistance, it has failed to develop its offensive. The sequence of lower local highs is generally in line with the trend that began in September 2023 and formed a downward channel.

The lower boundary of this corridor is now near $53 for WTI and will decline to $47 by the end of the year. For Brent, these levels are $56.5 and $50.50, respectively. However, this corridor is only valid based on currently known data. This is the main scenario for a time when subdued economic growth reduces energy demand, despite the OPEC+ declared market deficit.
If Israel and Iran return to the intensity of action we have seen in the last couple of weeks, it could break the trend that has formed in recent years. However, we still consider this scenario to be an alternative rather than a baseline.

Moreover, it cannot be ruled out that recent events will lead to an easing of sanctions imposed on Iran, allowing it to increase oil exports and further reduce its price. Even without sanctions, Iran has a compelling reason to try to increase its exports, spending the proceeds on rebuilding the country.