Crude Oil Outlook: Saudi tensions boost oil price but key barriers still hold

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

US CRUDE OIL

WTI oil moved higher in early Monday's trading, in extension of recovery from $70.49 (11 Oct low), after bullish close on Friday signaled stabilization following strong fall on Wed/Thu last week. Rising tensions over missing Saudi prominent journalist sparked fresh concerns about supply, as the US President Trump threatened severe punishment while Saudi Arabia responded, saying it would retaliate to any action. Recovery action on Monday was capped by 20SMA at $72.68, with subsequent pullback suggesting that bulls might be running out of steam. Near-term action remains biased higher as momentum is breaking into positive territory and slow stochastic reversing from oversold zone, continuing to underpin. Recovery needs break above 20SMA ($72.68) and Fibo 38.2% of $76.88/$70.49 ($72.93) to generate bullish signal for extension and also signal formation of higher low at $70.49, while sustained break above falling 10SMA / Fibo 50% ($73.60/69) is needed to confirm reversal. Alternatively, return and close below 30SMA ($71.42) would weaken near-term structure and risk retest of key near-term support at $70.49.

Res: 72.00; 72.68; 72.93; 73.60
Sup: 71.42; 71.00; 70.49; 70.00

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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