Cross‑asset divergence heats up: Bond yields fall, Gold climbs, Dollar fights for support

A decisive breakdown in Treasury yields, an ascending triangle in Gold, and a dollar test at key pivots are setting the stage for the market's next directional surge across equities, FX, and commodities.

1. US Treasury yields

2‑year yield (US02Y, D1)

• Pattern: Descending triangle since April 2024.
• Key levels:
  • Trendline resistance: ~4.00% (failed tests in June/July).
  • Triangle base (μ3): 3.542% (multiple touches since March 2024).
  • μ2 support: 3.717%
  • μ1 support: 3.258%
  • μ0 major low: 3.083%
• Implications:
  • Bearish breakdown: Daily close < 3.542% → targets 3.258% → 3.083%.
  • Bullish reversal: Close > 4.00% → first stop at 4.176% (μ4), next at 4.460% (μ5).

2‑year yield price chart courtesy of TradingView. Analysis by MacroStructure dot connect.

10‑year yield (US10Y, D1)

• Pattern: Symmetrical triangle/contracting channel from September 2024.
• Key levels:
  • Upper trendline: ~4.49% (pivot μ4).
  • Mid‑triangle pivot (μ2): 4.286%.
  • Lower trendline / μ1: 4.160%.
  • Major support zone (μ0): 3.955%–3.829%.
  • Extended resistances: 4.617% (μ5), 4.822% (μ6), cycle high 5.02%.
• Implications:
  • Upside breakout: Daily close > 4.49% → 4.617% → 4.822%.
  • Downside breakdown: Close < 4.286% → 4.160% → 3.955%–3.829%.

Yield takeaway: Front‑end yields poised to roll over, steepening the curve—bullish for rate‑sensitive assets and gold.

10‑year yield price chart courtesy of TradingView. Analysis by MacroStructure dot connect.

2. Gold futures (GC1!, H4)

• Pattern: Ascending triangle since May 2025.
• Key levels:
  • Flat resistance (μ5): 3445-1
  • μ4 pivot: 3410-4
  • Triangle base & μ3: 3354-2 (also POC on the volume profile)
  • Value area low (VAL): 3322-7
  • μ2 / μ1 supports: 3298 / 3228-5
• Implications:
  • Bullish trigger: H4 close > 3354-2 with rising volume → 3410-4 → 3445-1 → 3490-3.
  • Bearish warning: Close < 3322-7 → 3298 → 3228-5.

Gold cue: A yield breakdown coupled with gold strength confirms a safe‑haven tilt.

Gold futures price chart courtesy of TradingView. Analysis by MacroStructure dot connect.

3. US Dollar Index (DXY, D1)

• Pattern: Descending trend since January 2025.
• Key levels:
  • Channel mid / pivot: 97-950
  • μ5 support: 97-257
  • μ4 / μ3 supports: 96-712 / 96-330
  • μ2 / μ1 supports: 95-948 / 95-475
  • Major pivot: 101-182
• Implications:
  • Bullish base: Daily close > 97-950 → 99-069 (μ3) → 99-948 (μ4).
  • Bearish risk: Close < 97-257 → 96-712 → 96-330 → 95-475.

Dollar cue: A confirmed base at 97-25–97-95 may cap commodity upside and pressure USD‑exposed FX crosses.

US dollar (DXY) futures price chart courtesy of TradingView. Analysis by MacroStructure dot connect.

4. FX pairs

EUR/USD (D1)

• Pattern: Broadening rising channel since January 2025.
• Key levels:
  • Upper channel: 1.1790
  • Breakout threshold: 1.1900
  • μ4 pivot: 1.1968
  • μ2 / μ3 supports: 1.1550 / 1.1440
  • Mid‑channel: 1.1372
  • Lower channel: ~1.0440
• Implications:
  • Continuation: Daily close > 1.1790 → 1.1900 → 1.1968 → 1.2085.
  • Correction: Rejection → 1.1728 → 1.1550 → 1.1372 → 1.1195.

EUR/USD cue: EUR/USD pressing highs while DXY holds support—watch for a corrective pullback if the dollar rebounds.

EUR/USD price chart courtesy of TradingView | Analysis by MacroStructure dot connect.

USD/JPY (D1)

• Pattern: Long‑term rising channel since Jan‑2023.
• Key levels:
  • Channel support pivot: 143-762
  • Short‑term resistance: 146-940
  • Mid‑channel pivot: 152-082
  • Upper channel: 155-260
  • Lower channel base: 143-762
• Implications:
  • Upside: Close > 146-940 → 152-082 → 155-260.
  • Downside: Close < 143-762 → 140-000 → 138-620.

USD/JPY cue: USD/JPY support at 143-762 signals a potential recovery on widening US‑Japan yield differentials.

USD/JPY price chart courtesy of TradingView. Analysis by MacroStructure dot connect.

5. Equities – Nasdaq futures (NQ1!, H4)

• Pattern: Steady up‑trend channel since May 2025.
• Key levels:
  • VAH / major pivot: 23,466.0
  • Micro 5 support: 23,095.5
  • Channel median: ~23,300
  • μ6 / μ7 extensions: 24,136 / 24,614.5
  • Phase 3 target: 25,222
• Implications:
  • Bullish breakout: H4 close > 23,466.0 → 24,316.8 → 24,614.5 → 25,222.8.
  • Bearish warning: Slip < 23,095.5 → 23,300 → 22,812.5.

Equities cue: Lower yields, firmer gold, and a stabilising dollar could fuel a new leg in growth names—though a dollar rebound would check further multiple expansion.

Nasdaq futures price chart courtesy of TradingView. Analysis by MacroStructure dot connect.

Overall market outlook

The breakdown of 2- and 10-year yields, alongside gold's ascending triangle and the dollar's test of critical pivots, points to a potential safe-haven tilt. Equities may shift into yield-sensitive and commodity-linked sectors as interest rates decline. FX crosses will likely mirror the dollar's fortunes: EUR/USD faces a corrective test unless it clears 1.1790, while USD/JPY may resume its long-term uptrend on sustained Fed-BOJ rate differentials. The market's next major thrust hinges on whether yields break decisively lower (catalysing gold and tech rallies) or rebound (reasserting dollar strength and defensive positioning).