After turning lower last week, continued unemployment claims took a turn for the worse again this week.

Initial claims remain stubbornly high but did fall under the 2 million mark for the first time in 11 weeks. 

Continuing claims took a turn for the worse and rose to 21.487 million.

Initial Claims

Eleven-Week Total

The eleven-week running total of initial claims is 42.647 million.

However, some of those workers have been called back as states have opened. Also some people submitted claims and were not really eligible.

Continuing claims, at 21.487 million, paint a better picture at this point as to what is happening.

BLS Reference Week

The reference week for the BLS Household Survey unemployment report is the week that contains the 12th of the month. It is that week's survey that determines the unemployment rate.

For the May Jobs Report coming out Friday, June 5, the reference week was May 10 through May 16.

Thus today's numbers will not impact the May jobs report out tomorrow.

Bogus Number

As noted on May 9, there was a 6.4 Million Discrepancy Between Employment and Unemployment.

The BLS is very aware they published a bogus unemployment number for April and issued this notice.

If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to “other reasons” (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical April) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). However, according to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses.

Data Integrity

To maintain "data integrity" the BLS reported a number known to be bogus.

There is still more to this BLS fiddling saga.

Click on the preceding link for details about Seasonal Adjustments and an unusual statement regarding their Birth-Death model adjustments.

Tomorrow's Reported Number

The BLS will report the May unemployment rate tomorrow.

Judging from continued claims, the unemployment rate would be 14.7% as I calculated a week ago.

That is not my prediction, it is just a "what if the unemployment rate matches the claims" statement.

The consensus estimate tomorrow is for an unemployment rate of 19.8%. 

If the number is that high, the BLS will have done a far better job eliciting responses than it did last month.

My unemployment rate guess: 18.5%. We find out tomorrow.

 

This material is based upon information that Sitka Pacific Capital Management considers reliable and endeavors to keep current, Sitka Pacific Capital Management does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD falls below 1.1850 as US consumer sentiment beats

EUR/USD is trading under1.1850, off the previous levels as US consumer sentiment beat estimates with 78.9 points. The Fed refrained from adding more stimulus, supporting the dollar earlier in the week. Investors are eyeing fiscal stimulus talks.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD falls as the EU reportedly objects Johnson's bill

GBP/USD is trading around 1.2950, off the highs. According to reports, the EU remains opposed to UK PM Johnson's controversial bill, which violates the Brexit accord. 

GBP/USD News

XAU/USD struggles to move back above 100-hour SMA

Gold regained some positive traction on the last trading day of the week and recovered a part of the previous day's losses to over one-week lows. The commodity held on to its intraday gains and traded above the $1950 level through the mid-European session.

Gold News

Ethereum hits Bitcoin's bid to lead the market

Bitcoin risks dominance after the strong rise of Ethereum. Technical indicators show some significant discrepancies keeping the stress on the board. Sentiment levels are improving and bordering on optimism.

Read more

After yesterday's JMMC meeting WTI settles near $40 per barrel

WTI has been through a rollercoaster this week. The liquid gold has been in a downtrend leading into the OPEC+ JMMC meeting and then reversed the whole move. At the meeting the group agreed to extend the compensation period for overproduction till the end of December. 

Oil News

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures