Initial claims remain stubbornly high but did fall under the 2 million mark for the first time in 11 weeks.
Continuing claims took a turn for the worse and rose to 21.487 million.
Initial Claims
Eleven-Week Total
The eleven-week running total of initial claims is 42.647 million.
However, some of those workers have been called back as states have opened. Also some people submitted claims and were not really eligible.
Continuing claims, at 21.487 million, paint a better picture at this point as to what is happening.
BLS Reference Week
The reference week for the BLS Household Survey unemployment report is the week that contains the 12th of the month. It is that week's survey that determines the unemployment rate.
For the May Jobs Report coming out Friday, June 5, the reference week was May 10 through May 16.
Thus today's numbers will not impact the May jobs report out tomorrow.
Bogus Number
As noted on May 9, there was a 6.4 Million Discrepancy Between Employment and Unemployment.
The BLS is very aware they published a bogus unemployment number for April and issued this notice.
If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to “other reasons” (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical April) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). However, according to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses.
Data Integrity
To maintain "data integrity" the BLS reported a number known to be bogus.
There is still more to this BLS fiddling saga.
Click on the preceding link for details about Seasonal Adjustments and an unusual statement regarding their Birth-Death model adjustments.
Tomorrow's Reported Number
The BLS will report the May unemployment rate tomorrow.
Judging from continued claims, the unemployment rate would be 14.7% as I calculated a week ago.
That is not my prediction, it is just a "what if the unemployment rate matches the claims" statement.
The consensus estimate tomorrow is for an unemployment rate of 19.8%.
If the number is that high, the BLS will have done a far better job eliciting responses than it did last month.
My unemployment rate guess: 18.5%. We find out tomorrow.
This material is based upon information that Sitka Pacific Capital Management considers reliable and endeavors to keep current, Sitka Pacific Capital Management does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD failed just ahead of the 200-day SMA
Finally, AUD/USD managed to break above the 0.6500 barrier on Wednesday, extending the weekly recovery, although its advance faltered just ahead of the 0.6530 region, where the key 200-day SMA sits.
EUR/USD met some decent resistance above 1.0700
EUR/USD remained unable to gather extra upside traction and surpass the 1.0700 hurdle in a convincing fashion on Wednesday, instead giving away part of the weekly gains against the backdrop of a decent bounce in the Dollar.
Gold keeps consolidating ahead of US first-tier figures
Gold finds it difficult to stage a rebound midweek following Monday's sharp decline but manages to hold above $2,300. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the green above 4.6% after US data, not allowing the pair to turn north.
Bitcoin price could be primed for correction as bearish activity grows near $66K area
Bitcoin (BTC) price managed to maintain a northbound trajectory after the April 20 halving, despite bold assertions by analysts that the event would be a “sell the news” situation. However, after four days of strength, the tables could be turning as a dark cloud now hovers above BTC price.
Bank of Japan's predicament: The BOJ is trapped
In this special edition of TradeGATEHub Live Trading, we're joined by guest speaker Tavi @TaviCosta, who shares his insights on the Bank of Japan's current predicament, stating, 'The BOJ is Trapped.'