Analysis: Over the 90 years between 1927 and 2017, the average S&P 500 monthly return during expansions was +0.89% (889 months), compared to an average S&P 500 monthly return during recessions of -0.71% (191 months). In terms of proportions of time: expansion months account for about 80% and recession months about 20%. The business cycle also has important implications for Fed policy. *Note that recessions are not announced by the NBER until well after their start dates*

Cycle

Download The Full Article

The Merk Hard Currency Fund is a no-load mutual fund that invests in a basket of hard currencies from countries with strong monetary policies assembled to protect against the depreciation of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies. The Fund may serve as a valuable diversification component as it seeks to protect against a decline in the dollar while potentially mitigating stock market, credit and interest riskswith the ease of investing in a mutual fund. The Fund may be appropriate for you if you are pursuing a long-term goal with a hard currency component to your portfolio; are willing to tolerate the risks associated with investments in foreign currencies; or are looking for a way to potentially mitigate downside risk in or profit from a secular bear market. For more information on the Fund and to download a prospectus, please visit www.merkfund.com. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks and charges and expenses of the Merk Hard Currency Fund carefully before investing. This and other information is in the prospectus, a copy of which may be obtained by visiting the Fund's website at www.merkfund.com or calling 866-MERK FUND. Please read the prospectus carefully before you invest. The Fund primarily invests in foreign currencies and as such, changes in currency exchange rates will affect the value of what the Fund owns and the price of the Funds shares. Investing in foreign instruments bears a greater risk than investing in domestic instruments for reasons such as volatility of currency exchange rates and, in some cases, limited geographic focus, political and economic instability, and relatively illiquid markets. The Fund is subject to interest rate risk which is the risk that debt securities in the Funds portfolio will decline in value because of increases in market interest rates. As a non-diversified fund, the Fund will be subject to more investment risk and potential for volatility than a diversified fund because its portfolio may, at times, focus on a limited number of issuers. The Fund may also invest in derivative securities which can be volatile and involve various types and degrees of risk. For a more complete discussion of these and other Fund risks please refer to the Funds prospectus. The views in this article were those of Axel Merk as of the newsletter's publication date and may not reflect his views at any time thereafter. These views and opinions should not be construed as investment advice nor considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy shares of any securities mentioned herein. Mr. Merk is the founder and president of Merk Investments LLC and is the portfolio manager for the Merk Hard Currency Fund. Foreside Fund Services, LLC, distributor.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD registers an inside day ahead of German Zew survey

EUR/USD created an inside day or inside bar candlestick pattern on Monday, indicating investor indecision and impending volatility and has made Tuesday's close pivotal. A bullish close could be seen if the German Zew Survey data betters expectations by a big margin.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD: Options market turns bullish on Sterling for first since January 2018

The options market has turned bullish on the British Pound (GBP) for the first time since January 2018, a sign the investors are anticipating Brexit breakthrough and adding bets to position for a rally in Sterling. One-month risk reversals (GBP1MRR) rose above zero on Friday and currently stands at 0.25 – the highest level in 21 months.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY unchanged on 108 handle in Tokyo opening hour, eyes on key events

USD/JPY is steady in Tokyo's opening hour, down -0.02% despite the concerns over the 'Phase1' deal made between China and the US on Friday. Looking ahead, eyes are on US Industrial Production and Fed speakers.

USD/JPY News

UK jobs report preview: GBP/USD set to react to figures that go with the Brexit mood

Finding a job in the UK is more accessible than in the past and pay is rising – but that does not move the pound these days. The employment report is scheduled two days ahead of the critical EU Summit and 16 ahead of Brexit Day. 

Read more

Gold: Bears look for a break below the trendline support

The price had been sent lower below the 21 and 50-day MA converging and the 7th Oct lows. Trendline support guards a test of a 50% mean reversion of the late June swing lows to recent highs around 1480 will be encouraged. 

Gold News

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures