Analysis: Over the 90 years between 1927 and 2017, the average S&P 500 monthly return during expansions was +0.89% (889 months), compared to an average S&P 500 monthly return during recessions of -0.71% (191 months). In terms of proportions of time: expansion months account for about 80% and recession months about 20%. The business cycle also has important implications for Fed policy. *Note that recessions are not announced by the NBER until well after their start dates*

Cycle

Download The Full Article

The Merk Hard Currency Fund is a no-load mutual fund that invests in a basket of hard currencies from countries with strong monetary policies assembled to protect against the depreciation of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies. The Fund may serve as a valuable diversification component as it seeks to protect against a decline in the dollar while potentially mitigating stock market, credit and interest riskswith the ease of investing in a mutual fund. The Fund may be appropriate for you if you are pursuing a long-term goal with a hard currency component to your portfolio; are willing to tolerate the risks associated with investments in foreign currencies; or are looking for a way to potentially mitigate downside risk in or profit from a secular bear market. For more information on the Fund and to download a prospectus, please visit www.merkfund.com. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks and charges and expenses of the Merk Hard Currency Fund carefully before investing. This and other information is in the prospectus, a copy of which may be obtained by visiting the Fund's website at www.merkfund.com or calling 866-MERK FUND. Please read the prospectus carefully before you invest. The Fund primarily invests in foreign currencies and as such, changes in currency exchange rates will affect the value of what the Fund owns and the price of the Funds shares. Investing in foreign instruments bears a greater risk than investing in domestic instruments for reasons such as volatility of currency exchange rates and, in some cases, limited geographic focus, political and economic instability, and relatively illiquid markets. The Fund is subject to interest rate risk which is the risk that debt securities in the Funds portfolio will decline in value because of increases in market interest rates. As a non-diversified fund, the Fund will be subject to more investment risk and potential for volatility than a diversified fund because its portfolio may, at times, focus on a limited number of issuers. The Fund may also invest in derivative securities which can be volatile and involve various types and degrees of risk. For a more complete discussion of these and other Fund risks please refer to the Funds prospectus. The views in this article were those of Axel Merk as of the newsletter's publication date and may not reflect his views at any time thereafter. These views and opinions should not be construed as investment advice nor considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy shares of any securities mentioned herein. Mr. Merk is the founder and president of Merk Investments LLC and is the portfolio manager for the Merk Hard Currency Fund. Foreside Fund Services, LLC, distributor.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: Extra gains in the pipeline above 0.6520

AUD/USD: Extra gains in the pipeline above 0.6520

AUD/USD partially reversed Tuesday’s strong pullback and regained the 0.6500 barrier and beyond in response to the sharp post-FOMC pullback in the Greenback on Wednesday.

AUD/USD News

EUR/USD meets support around 1.0650

EUR/USD meets support around 1.0650

EUR/USD managed to surpass the key 1.0700 barrier in response to the intense retracement in the US Dollar in the wake of the Fed’s interest rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference.

EUR/USD News

Gold surpasses $2,300 as Dollar tumbles

Gold surpasses $2,300 as Dollar tumbles

The precious metal maintains its constructive stance and trespasses the $2,300 region on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left its FFTR intact, matching market expectations.

Gold News

Bitcoin price reclaims $59K as Fed leaves rates unchanged

Bitcoin price reclaims $59K as Fed leaves rates unchanged

The market was at the edge of its seat on Wednesday to see whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. 

Read more

The market welcomes the Fed's statement

The market welcomes the Fed's statement

The market has welcomed the Fed statement, and the S&P 500 is higher in its aftermath, the dollar is lower and Treasury yields are falling. There is still only one cut priced in by the Fed.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures