CNH and CN stocks lag amid deflation concerns – AU bond yields track rise in UST rates

Asia market update: CNH and CN stocks lag amid deflation concerns; AU bond yields track rise in UST rates; Recent US jobs data in focus; US CPI data due on Tues., RBA Gov to also speak.

General trend

- The recent Ueda comments were played down [Reminder Dec 7th: Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov Ueda: challenging situation remains and likely become more so towards the year end and early next year; Options include raising rate applied to financial institutions' reserves at the BOJ, or revert to policy rate targeting overnight call rate; Whether to keep interest rate at zero or move it up to 0.1% will depend on economic and financial developments; Too early to conduct exit simulation].

- JGB yields mixed.

- Equity markets trade mixed.

- Japanese stocks supported by weaker Yen.

- US M&A theme?

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens +0.3% at 7,217.

- Australia to triple fees on foreign purchases of existing homes; cites Treasurer Chalmers - press.

- Australia Treasurer expects budget deficit to narrow in FY24 to ~A$900M; expected to issue updated forecasts on Dec 13th (Wed) - Australian press.

-Australia PM Albanese: Govt has a plan to slow Australian immigration, need to bring immigration back to sustainable levels.

- Australia PM Albanese to take leave until Dec 14th [reason not disclosed].

- China Customs: Authorized economic operator mutual recognition arrangement with Australia Customs.

- (NZ) NZIER: latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show expectations for a general slowing in the New Zealand economy over the next two years.

- Regis Resources [RRL.AU]: Has closed out all remaining commitments on its existing gold sales hedge book; now fully exposed to spot gold prices.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens +0.2% at 16,373.

- Shanghai Composite opens -0.5% at 2,956.

- China Nov CPI M/M: -0.5% V -0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: -0.5% V -0.2%E [largest annualized decline since Nov 2020].

- China Pres Xi chaired Politburo meeting which discussed and analyse economic work for 2024; Says China's fiscal policy must be moderately strengthened to stimulate recovery; Look to deepen reforms in key areas; Xi 'warns' China economic recovery at critical stage - Chinese press.

- China names Zhu Hexin as SAFE [FX regulator] Chief and PBOC Dep Gov - press [**Reminder Nov 24th China confirms to appoint Zhu Hexin as Party Chief of FX regulator - press].

- China State Admin of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): To further promote cross-border trade and investment; To optimize foreign exchange management of procurement trade.

- CSRC [China Securities Regulator] reportedly could cut stock trading commissions by 30% - press.

- China PCA: Nov final Retail Passenger Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 26.0% v 25.0% prelim.

- China arrests over 50 people for insider trade and market manipulation - Chinese press.

- US said to consider missile launch notification plans with China - Japanese press [**Reminder Nov 15th (CN) China President Xi: Confirms China and US agree to restore military communication; Has no plan to replace the US; calls for mutual respect and that both sides should have more dialogue].

- 30 local brokerage firms in Hong Kong have closed down in 2023 v 49 y/y; cites data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange - Press.

-Hong Kong said to consider resumption of multiple-entry permit for permanent residents of Shenzhen - Press.

- HSBC and Hang Seng Bank cut HKD fixed deposit interest rates by 20bps - Press.

- Country Garden [2007.HK]: Targets to deliver 400K units during 2024; Vows to ensure delivery and operation for next 12-months; Very confident in repairing balance sheet - statement on WeChat.

- JD.com: Chairman Richard Liu responds to employee's intranet post, confesses to mismanaging company - Asia press.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens +1.1% at 32,665.

- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Gov Ueda's remark about exit from negative rate said to be taken out of context and not signal of imminent shift, but weakening domestic consumption a concern for BoJ; next key data for timing of exit would be 'tankan' business survey on Dec 13th - press [from Dec 8th].

- Japan Q4 BSI large all industry index Q/Q: 4.8 V 5.8 prior; large manufacturing Q/Q: 5.7 V 5.4 prior.

- Japan Nov M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.4% prior [slowest pace since 2019]; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.8% prior.

- Japan PM Kishida: Wants to consider appropriate measures at the appropriate time [asked about cabinet reshuffle].

- Japanese PM Kishida plans to replace chief cabinet secretary Matsuno after criminal complaint filed.

- Japanese PM Kishida plans to replace Industry Min Nishimura and ruling party policy chief Hagiuda - press.

- Matsuya Foods [9887.JP]: Expected to raise wages by 10.9% from Apr 2024 - Japanese press.

Korea

- Kospi opens +0.3%.

- South Korea Dec 1-10th Exports Y/Y: 3.3%; Imports -15.3%.

- (KR) South Korea Financial Services Commission (FSC): Margin call risks by domestic brokerage firms can be managed [**Reminder Nov 27th South Korea to examine the bank exposures of HK stock index-linked ELS [equity-linked securities] sales - South Korea press ].

Other Asia

-Taiwan Semi: Reports Nov (NT$) Rev 206.0B, -7.5% y/y (v +15.6% prior) and -15.3% m/m; YTD Rev 1.99T -4.1% y/y v -3.7% prior [from Dec 8th].

North America

- (US) President Biden gives rare take on interest rates; he said jobs report does NOT encourage Fed to raise rates - US financial press [update].

- (US) Nov change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +199K V +183KE.

- (US) Nov unemployment rate: 3.7% V 3.9%E (lowest since July); Participation rate matches highest since Feb 2020.

- (US) Nov average hourly earnings M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 4.0% V 4.0%E.

- (US) Dec preliminary university of michigan confidence: 69.4 V 62.0E (highest since Aug).

- Macy's [M]: Receives $5.8B offer to be taken private from Arkhouse Management consortium at $21/share [~21% premium to prior close] - WSJ.

- Cigna [CI]: Announces increase to Share Repurchase Program of $10B, bringing the company's total share repurchase authority to $11.3B; affirms FY23 adj at least $24.75 v $24.82e; affirms FY24 adj at least $28.00 v $28.21e.

- Humana [HUM]: Cigna said to end attempt to negotiate acquisition of Humana - press.

- Boeing [BA]: To name Stephanie Pope COO; Pope said to be likely successor to CEO David Calhoun - WSJ.

- Nasdaq announces annual changes to the Nasdaq-100 Index: Adding CDW DASH SPLK MDB CCEP ROP; effective Dec 18th; Removing: ALGN EBAY JD ENPH ZM LCID.

Europe

- (UK) Dec Rightmove House Prices M/M: -1.9% v -1.7% prior; Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.3% prior.

Levels as of 00:20 ET

- Nikkei 225, +1.5%, ASX 200 +0.1% , Hang Seng -1.7%; Shanghai Composite -0.2% ; Kospi +0.1%.

- Equity S&P500 Futures: -0.1%; Nasdaq100 -0.3%, Dax +0.1%; FTSE100 +0.3%.

- EUR 1.0773-1.0759 ; JPY 145.67-144.81 ; AUD 0.6583-0.6551 ;NZD 0.6137-0.6105.

- Gold -0.1% at $2,013/oz; Crude Oil +0.6% at $71.68/brl; Copper -0.5% at $3.8117/lb.