Chinese exports: A major growth slowdown is expected

BNP Paribas Team BNP Paribas

After an extremely solid performance in 2020 and 2021, export growth will slow steeply in 2022. Export growth rates have already been normalising in recent months, and the slowdown is expected to deepen in Q2 2022. This is the consequence of supply-side constraints due to disruptions in factories, supply-chain difficulties in the manufacturing sector and problems with goods transport following lockdowns in several main industrial and port regions (notably Shanghai). Exports to other Asian countries (47% of China’s total exports) were the first to be hit by China’s logistics problems and slowed markedly in March.

On the demand side, the outlook has been worsening since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. In its April World Economic Outlook, the IMF further downgraded its forecast for world economic growth in 2022, to 3.6% (down from 6.1% in 2021) and for world trade growth to 5% (from 10.1% in 2021). The slowdown in China’s export growth and the expected deterioration in its trade and current account surpluses (all the more so as its import bill is hit by rising commodity prices) – coupled with the effects of the growing divergence between monetary policies of People’s Bank of China and the US Fed – contributed to the sudden depreciation (of around 4%) of the yuan against the US dollar in April.

Download The Full Eco Flash

Author

BNP Paribas Team

BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas Economic Research Department is a worldwide function, part of Corporate and Investment Banking, at the service of both the Bank and its customers.

AUD/USD remains above 0.7200 after China's trade data

AUD/USD sits above 0.7200 in the Asian session on Tuesday, near its highest level since May 14. The US Dollar stays under pressure as a rallying Japanese Yen outweighs support from hawkish Fed bets and geopolitical tensions. This, along with firming expectations for another RBA rate hike later this month, acts as a tailwind for the Aussie. However, mixed China trade balance data keep the pair restricted.

USD/JPY stabilizes at around 154.00 as markets assess BoJ outlook

USD/JPY fluctuates at around 154.00 in the American session on Tuesday after rebounding from the six-month low it touched below 153.00 earlier in the day. Nevertheless, the upside attempts resemble technical corrections for now as Japan's upbeat wage growth data and Q2 GDP revision cement bets on a BoJ rate hike next week and continue to support the Japanese Yen.

Gold holds around $4,400, but for how long?

Gold (XAU/USD) remains on the back foot during American trading hours on Tuesday, even as the US Dollar (USD) remains on the defensive. Rising Oil prices and expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike weigh on the precious metal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,400 after reaching an intraday high near $4,443.

XRP ticks up as bullish derivatives, EMA support signal breakout

Ripple (XRP) is grinding upward and getting closer to a short-term breakout above $1.40 on Tuesday. This uptick follows the remittance token's defense of support at $1.38, after a short-lived attempt to breach selling pressure at $1.50 last week.

Europe in focus: September 2026

Six major net contributors demanded substantial cuts to the European Commission’s proposed 2028–2034 EU budget. Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Sweden issued a joint position on 27 August calling for the nearly €2 trillion proposal to be reduced by several hundred billion euros and rejecting additional common EU borrowing.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.