Changing horses in the middle of the stream

Good Day... And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! A big series at Busch this week between the Cardinals and Phillies... The Phillies took the first game when a Cardinals' pitcher forgot how to throw the ball to first base! UGH! We had the baby here for a couple of hours last night, and he wasn't a happy camper! But he's so darn cute, he can cry all he wants to! I love it, that there's a new baby around! The Byrds greet me this morning with their song: 8 Miles High... 

Well, the dollar found that the conviction to rate cuts wasn't as strong as it was on Friday last week, and the dollar rallied.... The BBDXY gained 3 index points and ended the day at 1,203....  So, all that talk about a rate cut on Friday was thrown out with the bathwater yesterday.... I think most economists came out and talked about how strong and resilient the U.S. economy is right now and that squelched the rate cut talk.... 

Gold/Silver continued their walk back on rally lane yesterday, with Gold up $48 and Silver was up $2.14 on the day... this marks two consecutive days that these two metals were in rally mode... Yes, the SPT's are still there attempting to keep a lid on their gains, but they're going about half-heartedly...  I'm not saying that the SPTs will be no problem going forward, I'm just saying that the SPTs haven't wiped out the metals' gains as they very well could have if they had wanted... 

The price of Oil is rallying again, and yesterday it gained $3 and ended the day with an $82 handle... I told you that the Peace Agreement that caused the slide in Oil prices was bunk.... And it proved out to be as Friday's deadline for the Iranians to come to the negotiating table with some kind of deal, came and went....  I read a piece yesterday that talked about the short supply of missiles and bombs for the U.S. had hindered the POTUS from waging more war.... (is somebody hiding them? I kid, because I for one, do not see how a country like us would be short missiles and bombs.... I'm just saying...

And the 10-year Treasury's yield saw a nice bump higher, and it ended the day with a 4.71% yield... 

In the overnight markets last night... There was no movement in the dollar as the BBDXY stayed at 1,203 throughout the night. Gold is up $6 to start our day, but Silver is down 35-cents... Silver out performed Gold yesterday, so this is just some profit taking right now, but the SPTs will see this and see an opportunity to take Silver downward... 

The price of Oil also stayed at its closing price all night and therefore starts today with an $82 handle. The 10-year saw some adjustments and starts today with a 4.69% yield. 

When I was copying the Pfennig to the email server yesterday, I noticed how wordy it had become... Well, I can guarantee you that it won't be that wordy today....  

Well, our special oil reserves have fallen below 300 Million gallons for the first time since 1983... the actual number is 298.7 Million but... don't worry the minimum it can be is 70 Million, so we've got a way to go... But after the POTUS released 172 Million gals this past March, it brought our reserves down to below 300 Million.... I don't get a warm and fuzzy about that, do you?

Tomorrow, we'll see the July STUPID CPI, and given that the BLS reported 23,000 jobs lost last month, I can see the propeller heads that calc CPI showing something that really scares the bejeebers out of the markets.... Maybe... and Maybe not... But one thing that I'm sure we will see is that inflation continues to be sticky and high....

Speaking of Inflation, I find it very interesting that the Fed/Cabal/Cartel head, Kevin Warsh, continues to state that inflation is still too high, and that his group of Fed Heads will work toward bringing inflation down.... Why do I find this interesting? Because, he's never told us how he's going to do that.... And that reminds me of myself always complaining about having to lose weight, but I don't exercise, eat what I want and don't do Wegovy or any other weight loss drug....  It's sort of the same thing... Saying one thing, with no plan to do anything about it! 

And that's why the bond boys keep marking the yields of bonds upward.... They hope to enforce the Fed Heads into doing something to combat inflation... And like I said the other day, the yield on the 10-year would be higher than it Is if only the Fed Heads kept their hands out of the cookie jar...  

OK, Chuck, talk about something else, all this inflation talk is making me madder than a wet hen! 

Well, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided that while inflation did pick up in the 2^nd QTR this year, that it was too soon to raise rates, and left them unchanged with a Cash Rate of 4.35%... so, no soup for you! Is what the RBA told depositors yesterday, and those that are already suffering from rising inflation... UGH!

The U.S. will auction some short term Bills today, which should be no problem.. Where the problem comes is the 3-year Treasuries... It's not a lot of them but still someone has to be a buyer.... The current yield is 4.17%, so new bonds will have to be higher yielding than that... I'm just saying..

The POTUS is changing horses in the middle of the stream regarding how Iran is treated... He's now looking into attempting to hurt the Iranians fiscally... Well, in my opinion, shouldn't that have been tried before we decided to bomb them? I'm just saying... Not that I want to get into discussing the war.....

And, look at yen... a week or so after $10 Billion was spent buying yen to stem its losses, the currency is back to 159.... Intervention doesn't normally work, and it ends up not working here.... As I aways say "the markets have deeper pockets than any Central Bank" and even when you get coordinated intervention the result is the same.... 

The U.S. Data Cupboard only has the Existing Home Sales for July today... The Data Cupboard has weeks like this every now and then, when the seem to be on vacation...  

To recap... All the talk about a rate cut that caused the dollar to be sold last Friday, was thrown out with the bathwater, and with that the dollar rallied on Monday... Gold & Silver had good days and Chuck said yesterday that he thought they were getting ready for another run higher... And yesterday was a good sign.... 

For What It's Worth... The well is dry once more, and finding a good FWIW article is like getting blood from a turnip...

Here's your snippet: "The current market environment offers precious metals investors “one of the more compelling upside setups we have seen in precious metals in months,” according to Scott Rubner, Head of Equity and Equity Derivatives Strategy at Citadel Securities.

Citadel Securities, the largest retail market maker in the United States, is now calling for structural exposure to gold for the first time in 2026, even as it sees enormous potential on the retain side for silver.

The investment giant sees five powerful catalysts converging to create asymmetric upside for both gold and silver: dovish Fed rate repricing, accelerating central bank purchases, net-short CTA positioning, bullish options dynamics in the biggest gold and silver ETFs, and a potential resurgence of retail participation.

Rubner focused his analysis of these catalysts on the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV).

Citadel sees the implied volatility for GLD lifting from a low base, with put/call skew inverted to its deepest level since February, a combination that historically signals accumulating bullish conviction.

“We are seeing the same dynamic in SLV, with implied volatility beginning to lift and skew meaningfully inverting,” which suggests that the silver market is following gold's lead in repricing upside risk, the firm wrote in a recent note."

Chuck Again... I guess we'll have to wait-n-see if I'm right about this, but this article gives my thought some backbone... So, here we go...

Market Prices 8/11/2026: American Style: A$ .7062, kiwi .5878, C$ .7223, euro 1.1538, sterling 1.3496, Swiss $1.2338, European Style: rand 16.1862, krone 9.5056, SEK 9.5060, forint 315.92, zloty 3.7239, koruna 21.0141, RUB 82.46, yen 159.25, sing 1.2803, HKD 7.8463, sing 1.2803,        China 6.7451, peso 17.12, BRL 5.1054, BBDXY 1,203, Dollar Index 99.62, Oil $82.39, 10-year 4.69%, Silver $65.30, Platinum $1,766.00 Palladium $1,399, Copper $6.66, and Gold... $4,397.

That's it for today... Same pattern with my sleep last night... I'm going to attempt to not nap today, and see where that takes me... Well, it's getting close... I'm talking about the College Football Season... My beloved Mizzou Tigers have a daunting schedule this year, so it's going to be a tough row to hoe for my Tigers... Good luck to them! The Cure takes us to the finish line this morning with their song: Just Lie Heaven.... I hope you have a Tom Terrific Day today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!