Forecasting the upcoming week: US inflation data steal the show

The US Dollar (USD) has advanced for the fourth week in a row, this time hitting levels last traded back in April 2025, always on the back of steady bets for further tightening by the Federal Reserve, while the lack of progress on the geopolitical front and rising crude oil prices also added to the move. 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has kept its march north unabated for yet another week, further extending the uptrend beyond the 102.00 mark while at the same time surpassing its 200-week SMA. The NFIB Business Optimism Index is due on October 13, followed by the ADP Employment Change Weekly, Existing Home Sales, and the Monthly Budget Statement. The usual MBA Mortgage Applications are due on October 14, seconded by the Inflation Rate, the Fed Beige Book and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims are expected on October 15 alongside Producer Prices, Business Inventories, Retail Sales and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. Closing the docket on October 16 will be Export/Import Prices, Industrial/Manufacturing Production, Capacity Utilisation and Net Long TIC Flows.

There was no respite for the multi-week retracement in EUR/USD, which clinched 18-month lows near 1.1160, always on the back of the persistent improvement in the sentiment surrounding the Greenback. Germany’s final Inflation Rate will come on October 13, while Wholesale Prices are expected on October 14. Back to the broader Euroland, Industrial Production figures are due on October 15. The final Inflation Rate in the region is expected on October 16 alongside Balance of Trade results.

GBP/USD has kind of stabilised in the area of four-month lows around the 1.3200 neighbourhood, wrapping up its fourth consecutive week of losses. The BRC Retail Sales Monitor comes on October 13. On October 15 a packed UK calendar will release the GDP figures, Balance of Trade results, Industrial/Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker.

USD/JPY advanced for the fourth straight week, although it maintained its sideline mood since the beginning of the month. The Bank Lending figures come on October 13 along with Producer Prices. Machinery Orders, the weekly Foreign Bond Investment prints, Capacity Utilisation and the final readings of the Industrial Production are all expected on October 15.

A fairly decent week saw AUD/USD reversing four weeks in a row of losses, advancing modestly, although another test of the 0.7000 hurdle remained elusive. The RBA will publish its Minutes on October 13, seconded by the NAB Business Confidence Index. The Westpac Leading Index is due on October 14, while the key labour market report is due on October 15.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

• The BoE’s Mann and Breeden are due to speak on October 12.
• The Fed’s Waller and Barkin will speak on October 13 ahead of the BoE’s Greene.
• The BoE’s Bailey and Pill speak on October 14 alongside the BoC’s Macklem, the ECB’s Lagarde and the Fed’s Bowman and Barkin.
• The Fed’s Bowman is expected to speak on October 15, as well as the BoE’s Pill, Breeden and Cleland and the BoJ’s Koeda.
• The BoE’s Bailey is due to speak on October 16 along with the Fed’s Warsh and the BoC’s Macklem.
• The BoE’s Bailey will speak on October 17.