I've seen at least 10 different versions of the following chart over the last two weeks.

Chart

From the provider: "The Smart Money Flow Index is calculated by taking the action of the Dow in two time periods: the first 30 minutes and the close. The first 30 minutes represent emotional buying, driven by greed and fear of the crowd based on good and bad news. There is also a lot of buying on market orders and short covering at the opening. Smart money waits until the end and they very often test the market before by shorting heavily just to see how the market reacts. Then they move in the big way. These heavy hitters also have the best possible information available to them and they do have the edge on all the other market participants.  To replicate this index, just start at any given day, subtract the price of the Dow at 10 AM from the previous day's close and add today's closing price.  Whenever the Dow makes a high which is not confirmed by the SMFI there is trouble ahead."

The “theory” goes that when smart guys start selling at the end of the session, you should pack your bags and run for the hills. But maybe they don't drive as much of the late day flow anymore. And by now you probably know who I'm going to call out: Mr. Passive, and more specifically Mr. Levered Passive will you please put your hand up.

I remember reading the following article a while ago: "Intraday share price volatility and leverage ETF rebalancing - Shum, Hejazi, Haryanto and Rodier (2015)". Have a skim through if you want, but this is the key sentence: "We show that end-of-day volatility was positively and statistically significantly correlated with the ratio of potential rebalancing trades to total trading volume. The impacts were not all economically significant, but largest during the most volatile days"

I decided to recreate a similar index, using flows into levered ETFs on the US markets and comparing that to the smart money flow index. Guess what, the chart looks nice.

Chart

Could be a coincidence. Could be that I'm always pointing the finger to ETFs for anything. Or could it that smart money flow index is about to mysteriously pick up.

The information contained in these blogs is intended for information purposes only. By opening these blogs you confirm your agreement that the information herein is not investment advice or recommendations by Lightfield Capital but the personal views and opinions of Samuel Gruen. These blogs are intended as a catalyst for conversation and debate between investment professionals. No reliance may be placed for any purpose on the information and opinions contained in these blogs. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in these blogs.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD flirts with highs near 0.7370 on RBA's status-quo

AUD/USD extends gains, flirting with daily highs near 0.7370 on RBA's status-quo. The aussie cheers the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI upside surprise and vaccine optimism. Fed Chair Powell expresses caution over the economic recovery, downs the US dollar.  

AUD/USD News

EUR/USD jumps back above 1.1950 amid upbeat market mood

The bid tone around the euro strengthened on Tuesday, pushing EUR/USD higher above 1.1950, as stock markets gained, weakening safe-havens such as the greenback. Coronavirus vaccine optimism and buoyant equity markets weigh over the dollar. Fed's Powell says the US economy remains in a damaged state.

EUR/USD News

Gold braces for a bumpy road to recovery above $1775

Gold (XAU/USD) is making another recovery attempt from five-month lows of $1765 as the US dollar dips on improved market mood amid coronavirus vaccine and US stimulus hopes.

Gold news

Dollar falls to 2.5 year low, 6 things to watch

The US dollar index plummeted to a 2.5 year low on Monday as investors worry about rising virus cases, fresh lockdowns, holiday spending and the Federal Reserve. With US virus cases topping 4 million in Nov, in-store Black Friday sales fell 52%. 

Read more

Black Friday 2020 Discounts!

Learn to trade with the best! Don't miss the most experienced traders and speakers in FXStreet Premium webinars. Also if you are a Premium member you can get real-time FXS Signals and receive daily market analysis with the best forex insights!

More info

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures