Samuel Gruen
Lightfield Capital
I've seen at least 10 different versions of the following chart over the last two weeks.
From the provider: "The Smart Money Flow Index is calculated by taking the action of the Dow in two time periods: the first 30 minutes and the close. The first 30 minutes represent emotional buying, driven by greed and fear of the crowd based on good and bad news. There is also a lot of buying on market orders and short covering at the opening. Smart money waits until the end and they very often test the market before by shorting heavily just to see how the market reacts. Then they move in the big way. These heavy hitters also have the best possible information available to them and they do have the edge on all the other market participants. To replicate this index, just start at any given day, subtract the price of the Dow at 10 AM from the previous day's close and add today's closing price. Whenever the Dow makes a high which is not confirmed by the SMFI there is trouble ahead."
The “theory” goes that when smart guys start selling at the end of the session, you should pack your bags and run for the hills. But maybe they don't drive as much of the late day flow anymore. And by now you probably know who I'm going to call out: Mr. Passive, and more specifically Mr. Levered Passive will you please put your hand up.
I remember reading the following article a while ago: "Intraday share price volatility and leverage ETF rebalancing - Shum, Hejazi, Haryanto and Rodier (2015)". Have a skim through if you want, but this is the key sentence: "We show that end-of-day volatility was positively and statistically significantly correlated with the ratio of potential rebalancing trades to total trading volume. The impacts were not all economically significant, but largest during the most volatile days"
I decided to recreate a similar index, using flows into levered ETFs on the US markets and comparing that to the smart money flow index. Guess what, the chart looks nice.
Could be a coincidence. Could be that I'm always pointing the finger to ETFs for anything. Or could it that smart money flow index is about to mysteriously pick up.
The information contained in these blogs is intended for information purposes only. By opening these blogs you confirm your agreement that the information herein is not investment advice or recommendations by Lightfield Capital but the personal views and opinions of Samuel Gruen. These blogs are intended as a catalyst for conversation and debate between investment professionals. No reliance may be placed for any purpose on the information and opinions contained in these blogs. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in these blogs.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD falls toward 1.0800 as USD gathers strength
EUR/USD came under renewed bearish pressure and declined toward 1.0800 in the American session on Monday. The bearish opening in Wall Street confirmed risk-averse conditions and provided a boost to the USD, causing the pair to stretch lower.
Gold to remain volatile, with risks of extending pullbacks Premium
Gold price staged a deep correction from the record top it set near $2,150 and declined below $2,050. Recovering US Treasury bond yields and risk aversion help the USD find demand and make it difficult for XAU/USD to shake off the selling pressure.
GBP/USD closes in on 1.2600 as mood sours
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades near 1.2600 in the American session. The US Dollar continues to find demand as a safe haven and weighs on the pair while major equity indexes in the US push lower after the opening bell.
Bitcoin price could revisit $45,000 according to crypto analyst
Bitcoin price crossed the $41,000 mark on Binance, in its ongoing uptrend. BTC price rally is likely driven by the anticipation of Spot Bitcoin ETF approval. There are more catalysts driving BTC price gains in the current cycle.
The week ahead – US Nonfarm Payrolls, RBA and BoC in spotlight
Last month’s October jobs report was the first one this year when the headline number came in below market expectations, though not by enough to raise concerns over the resilience of the US economy.