Following a series of more hawkish central bank action recently, 50 basis points (bp) hikes have become the new 25bp.  Several central banks surprised last week including a 100bp hike in Canada, 75bp hike in the Philippines and an inter-meeting tightening in Singapore. 

Meanwhile, while the upward surprise in US June CPI inflation (1.3% m/m) increased the chance of a 100bp hike from the Fed this month the University of Michigan sentiment survey revealed a decline in inflation expectations, with consumer sentiment languishing near all-time lows, dampening expectations of a larger move. 

While a 100bp hike at the 26/27 July FOMC meeting is quite possible after the Fed raised rates by 75bp last month, some Fed officials have dampened expectations of such a large move.  Officials such as Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Kansas City President George, have highlighted the risks that more aggressive rate increases would hurt the economy at a time when recessions risks have intensified. 

As we go into the Fed blackout period, with no Fed speakers ahead of the FOMC meeting and with the key June CPI print out of the way, there will be limited new news for markets to chew on.  Markets have fully priced in a little more than 75bp of Fed tightening this month, which seems reasonable, with a 75bp hike the most likely outcome.

This week has kicked off with another outsize increase in CPI inflation, this time in New Zealand where the Q2 CPI reading came in at 7.3% y/y (consensus. 7.1%, last 6.9%) reinforcing expectations of a 50bp hike by the RBNZ at its August meeting. 

There are several central bank decisions on tap in the euro area, Japan, China, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia, and Russia.  The outcomes will differ.  The European Central Bank is primed to hike by a tepid 25bp, with focus on the likely announcement of an anti-fragmentation tool.  Not surprises are expected in Japan (Thu), China (Wed), Indonesia (Thu) and Russia (Fri), with policy likely on hold in all four cases. 

In contrast a 50bp rate hike from the SARB in South Africa (Thu) is likely while Russia is expected to cut policy rates by as much 100bp.   Aside from central bank decisions earnings releases gain momentum this week while Italian politics will remain in focus.  

The US dollar has kicked off this week on a weak footing after ending last week on a softer note. USD positioning remains heavily long though its notable that speculative positioning in the USD index (DXY) has slipped over recent weeks (according to the CFTC IMM data). 

Still stretched positioning and lower yields as markets pull back from aggressive Fed tightening expectations will likely cap the USD in the short term.   However, it's hard to see the currency losing much ground, with EURUSD parity continuing to act as a magnet.  

The views expressed here are purely personal and do not represent the views or opinions of Calyon.

The information published at econometer.org and republished at FXstreet.com has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst all reasonable care is taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate, the author is not in any way responsible for the accuracy of its contents. The comments are intended to provide clients with information and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, currencies or any other financial product. The author makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites and the information contained does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs. Therefore you should consider whether these products are appropriate in view of your objectives, financial situation and needs as well as considering the risks associated in dealing with those products.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

Aussie Retail Sales: Misses expectations, AUD remains pressured

Aussie Retail Sales: Misses expectations, AUD remains pressured

The primary gauge of Australia’s consumer spending, Retail Sales, has come out as follows: Australia October Retail Sales -0.2 pct MoM s/adj (Reuters poll +0.5 pct).0.6700 area holds following failures at 4-hour resistance near the neckline of the M-formation.

AUDUSD News

EUR/USD retreats towards 1.0350 amid risk aversion ahead of EU inflation, Fed’s Powell

EUR/USD retreats towards 1.0350 amid risk aversion ahead of EU inflation, Fed’s Powell

EUR/USD remains pressured around 1.0380, after beginning the week’s trading with a downside gap, as the risk-off mood underpins the US Dollar’s demand during Monday’s Asian session. Also likely to have weighed on the quote could be the downbeat comments from ECB Governing Council Member Gabriel Makhlouf.

EUR/USD News

Gold holds gains above $1,750 as US GDP hogs limelight

Gold holds gains above $1,750 as US GDP hogs limelight

Gold price is focusing on establishing above the critical resistance of $1,750.00 in the early Asian session after a solid recovery from $1,746.00 witnessed late Friday. Broadly, the precious metal is looking to recapture the three-and-a-half-month high at $1,786.54 amid a broader strength in market mood.

Gold News

Binance Coin: Two things need to happen for BNB to hit $450

Binance Coin: Two things need to happen for BNB to hit $450

Binance Coin price could be running out of gas to continue its massive rally. While the last five days have been exciting times for holders, the following days will need to be closely monitored. The threat of a downswing looms for BNB.

Read more

Week Ahead: Decisive week for the Dollar as PCE inflation and NFP reports coming up

Week Ahead: Decisive week for the Dollar as PCE inflation and NFP reports coming up

After the Thanksgiving downtime that generated some further weakness for the greenback, investors will be looking for fresh direction from the barrage of US economic data that will be dominating the agenda in the coming week.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures