CEE: PMI rises in Romania and Poland, declines in Czechia
On the radar
- 2Q25 GDP in Poland was confirmed at 3.4% y/y driven by accelerating private consumption growth.
- In Serbia, the 2Q25 GDP was revised marginally up to 2.1% y/y.
- Producer prices in Romania increased by 2.7% y/y in July.
- At 8.30, Hungary will publish 2Q25 GDP structure.
- At 11 AM CET, Croatia releases flash inflation in August.
Economic developments
On Monday, manufacturing PMIs were released across the region. In Czechia, amid hope that PMI index will go above the threshold of 50, it actually declined marginally to 49.4 in August from 49.7 in July. According to the statement, supply chain issues hampered febrile improvements in the Czech manufacturing. In Poland and Romania, manufacturing PMIs increased in August (to 46.6 and 49.3, respectively) but they fall short of the threshold of 50 as well. In Poland, new orders, exports, output and backlogs kept falling in August, being the reason behind such low level of PMI. In Romania, new orders, output and employment were also down but at slower rates. Looking at the trend (3 month moving average), we see, however, that market sentiment in Czechia and Romania, alongside Germany, has been continuously improving. In Poland on the other hand market sentiment seems to be quite weak. The solid economic growth seems not to reflect that, however. According to 2Q25 GDP breakdown, private consumption growth accelerated although investment activity proved to be weaker than expected.
Market movements
Czechia’s Ministry of Finance published data for budget performance between January and August, and the budget gap narrowed slightly to CZK 165.37 billion. Romania was active on the bond market, selling government papers maturing in 2027 and 2031 that were priced to yield 7.26% and 7.48% respectively. Poland was claimed to benefit most of the common investment for joint procurement aiming at accelerating the expenditure in defense industry. Hungary’s central bank announced new mortgage lending rules to boost financial stability. Starting from January 1, 2026, banks must hold an extra 1% extra systemic risk capital buffer for both residential and commercial real estate loans. The announcement came at the day when Prime Minister Orban kicked off a new subsidized mortgage program offering up to 25-year mortgages at 3% fixed interest rate.
Author
Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
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