CEE: Europe’s ice cream production and trade

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

Real Retail Sales in Poland grew by 3.9% y/y in July, marking a slowdown compared to the previous month.
Unemployment rate in Slovenia was at 3.8% in the 2Q26.
Today, Hungarian central bank holds a rate-setting meeting and another rate cut is expected.
Unemployment rate will be released in Poland at 9.30 AM CET.
Wage growth in June is due in Serbia (noon CET).

Economic developments

Summertime means higher ice cream consumption especially if it is hot outside. And when it comes to ice cream, one might expect Italy to take the crown. But the EU’s biggest producer is Germany, which churned out around 608 million liters of ice cream in 2025. Italy came second with 549 million liters, followed by France with 525 million and Spain with 457 million. Altogether, the EU produced an impressive 3.44 billion liters of ice cream in 2025, up 1.9% from the previous year. CEE countries are much smaller players in the European ice cream league. Among countries with publicly available production data, Serbia, Czechia and Croatia are the most visible producers in the region while in other CEE countries production is negligible or data is not available.

Market movements

In Hungary, central bank holds a rate setting meeting today and we expect another 25bp cut from the current 5.75% base rate. This expectation is supported by July inflation falling to 1.2%, well below the central bank’s target. Further, the central bank had previously indicated further easing during the summer. The key issue related to the meeting will be forward guidance and how the bank assesses inflation development beyond September. We also believe that the tone of the accompanying communication could be more important for the Hungarian forint and short-term rates than the decision itself. Further, in Hungary, the government's revised 2026 budget lifts the deficit target from 3.7% to 7.5% of GDP due to undisclosed liabilities from the previous cabinet and costs related to drought that limit bigger budget cuts. Poland’s MPC member underlined that discussion about September’s interest rate decision should be a cautious one as there are many uncertainties. In his view, the interest rate level in Poland is close to optimal now. Serbia’s parliament opened an extraordinary session on the 2026 budget revision, and it widens the deficit to 3.5% of GDP because of one-off household support package. Finally, Romanian parliament holds special session to discuss several bills that need to be approved by the end of August under the country’s recovery program.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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