Catalonia Independence: Standoff with Spain to reach critical point on Thursday & Friday

The standoff between Spanish & Catalan governments is about to end this week. After announcing the triggering of Article 155 of the Constitution, Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy is aiming to take over the Catalan self-government and impose the direct ruling of Madrid to “restitute constitutional order” in Catalonia. In order to do so, he needs first the approval of the Senate, controlled by a majority of his party.

The Catalan government will not go out without taking a fight, though. Catalan parliament is also set to meet this week to discuss the consequences of the Spanish government decision to trigger article 155. Catalan President Carles Puigdemont could finally announce the Independence of Catalonia, which he “suspended” in the prior meeting of the parliament last October 10th.

All these events are expected to happen in a short period of barely few hours between next Thursday and Friday. Markets should prepare for an eventful end to the trading week, with the ECB Meeting coinciding in time with a further escalation of the Catalan-Spanish political standoff that has been weighing on the Euro.

This is the schedule of expected events, still subject to possible changes, as the situation remains very fluid:

Tuesday, October 24th

Senate committee starts its procedures to discuss the triggering of Article 155

Thursday, October 26th

Catalan Parliament to hold a full session meeting at a time yet to be known, but expected to start in the morning, around 7 GMT. The Parliament Chair Carme Forcadell is awaiting the decision from Puigdemont whether to speak or not at the Senate that same day to decide the timing of the meeting

Senate committee to make conclusions of discussions on Article 155, vote them and then make proposals for the full session on Friday around 15 GMT. Catalan President Carles Puigdemont has been invited to participate in the Senate discussions and is yet to decide if he will make the trip to Madrid to hold a speech there

Friday, October 27th

Senate full session to meet at 8 GMT and discuss proposed Article 155 measures, then hold a vote. Puigdemont could also decide to make his Senate speech in the full session

Catalan Parliament probably to be extended from Thursday, full session could hold a vote on the proclamation of the Republic of Catalonia

Spanish government to hold a meeting, timing unknown, to approve measures after Article 155 is passed by Senate

Saturday, October 28th

Official measures of Article 155 voted by Senate and executed by Spanish government are published. The Spanish government would take over the Catalan government from Monday October 30th on