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Can the Euro correct higher to some degree?

Outlook:

The data today includes US household debt, not a market-mover but interesting as an indicator of consumer confidence (which we get outright on Friday). Wage earnings are up a mere 0.1% over the past year while inflation is up 2.9%. The consumer has two choices if he wants to maintain the same standard of living—dip into savings or take on debt. We’re betting on the debt.

We face a test today of whether the euro can correct upward to any degree. As noted above, a decent correction would take it to a 50% retracement of the panic drop from last week, or 1.1496. As of this morning and after good German GDP without that response, we doubt it. Does the dollar not have a maximum gain? Yes, probably, but we don’t know what it is. A return to 1.20 or 1.10 or 1.05 is not outrageous.

US Dollar

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This is an excerpt from “The Rockefeller Morning Briefing,” which is far larger (about 10 pages). The Briefing has been published every day for over 25 years and represents experienced analysis and insight. The report offers deep background and is not intended to guide FX trading. Rockefeller produces other reports (in spot and futures) for trading purposes.

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Author

Barbara Rockefeller

Barbara Rockefeller

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc.

Experience Before founding Rockefeller Treasury, Barbara worked at Citibank and other banks as a risk manager, new product developer (Cititrend), FX trader, advisor and loan officer. Miss Rockefeller is engaged to perform FX-relat

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