Beware of the survivorship bias

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This past week has been a whirlwind for me, with a couple of webinars (this morning at 4am) and diving deeper into database management than I had anticipated. I’m feeling burned out, but instead of forcing some research that my heart is not into, I thought I’d share a powerful idea I touched on in my presentations. It’s something I think we could all use a reminder of. Have a wonderful weekend.

We live in a world where success is constantly glorified, especially in the media. We hear about the survivors—the ones who made it to the top—and it can make us feel like everyone is succeeding. But here’s the problem: this is survivorship bias at work. It’s the illusion that success is more common than it actually is, simply because the successful few are the ones we see, hear, and talk about. In reality, there’s far more that goes on behind the scenes—lots of failure, struggle, and pure luck.

Let’s break it down with a few examples.

Basketball:

Average NBA salary: $10 million/year.

Players making it to the NBA: Approximately 500.

Global basketball players: 610 million.

Odds of making the NBA: ~0.00008%.

When you hear the stories of NBA players, it’s easy to imagine that playing basketball is a sure-fire way to success. But the reality is, the odds of making it are astronomically small, even when you’re one of the best at it.

Tennis:

Top 100 pros: Average net income of ~$2 million.

Active professional tennis players: Over 2,500 globally.

People who play tennis: Around 87 million.

Pros breaking even after expenses: Only the top 150-200.

True average pro income: Closer to $0, with many paying to play.

Tennis might seem like a sport with lucrative rewards, but the majority of professional players are barely breaking even. In fact, for many, it’s a losing game financially.

Traders:

Top 100 hedge fund managers: Average earnings of $1.2 billion.

Average hedge fund employee: Around $200,000 to $400,000/year, with large variations by role.

Median earnings for smaller fund traders: Often under $150,000/year, especially after a lean bonus year.

“Professional” traders: Most make under $100,000/year, many working on payout splits without a base salary.

The headlines about hedge fund managers making billions are easy to find, but the truth is far more nuanced. Most traders, especially those at smaller funds or working on their own, make far less than the high-profile outliers. Yet, the media celebrates the biggest successes, making it feel like that's the norm.

The message here isn’t to discourage anyone from chasing big goals. Instead, it’s to realise that we’re often comparing ourselves to extreme outliers—those few exceptional cases that are amplified by the media. The majority of people, no matter the field, don't reach those extremes, and that's perfectly okay.

When you feel the pressure to be at the top, remind yourself: The odds are stacked against everyone. The real success isn’t about beating the extreme outliers but about making progress where you can, learning from failures, and building your own definition of success—no matter how big or small.

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This has been a week where President Trump has been the centre of all world news. I thought I would take a look at how his meme coin is doing. Better than April, but complete nonsense in my book.

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