Bank of America calls for $6,000 Gold in 2026

In October, Bank of America raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,000.

Mission accomplished as of January 23.

Now the big bank has upped its projection again, calling for $6,000 gold this year.

BoA analyst Michael Hartnett said gold’s performance in past bull markets influenced his thinking.

“History is no guide to future, but avg gold jump past 4 bull markets ≈ 300% in 43 months which would imply gold reaching $6,000 by spring.”

Earlier this month, Bank of America’s Head of Metals Research, Michael Widmer, indicated he thought gold would become a key asset in investment portfolios this year.

“Gold continues to stand out as a hedge and alpha source,” he wrote, adding that gold will serve as a key hedge and potential return driver in 2026.

In December, Widmer noted that bull markets don’t end simply because prices reach high levels. The bulls will fade when the fundamentals driving the market shift. At this point, there is no reason to think that de-dollarization, central bank gold buying, inflation pressures, Federal Reserve monetary easing, geopolitical tensions, and U.S. fiscal malfeasance will end any time soon.

“I’ve highlighted before that the gold market has been very overbought. But it's actually still underinvested. There is still a lot of room for gold as a diversification tool in portfolios.”

Tight supplies have been a key driver of the silver market. Widmer said the thinks supply constraints may also impact the gold market, forecasting that the 13 major North American gold miners will produce 19.2 million ounces this year, a decline of 2 percent from 2025. He said he believes that most market forecasts for output are too optimistic.

Widmer also projects average all-in sustaining costs will rise 3 percent to about $1,600 per ounce, a level slightly above the market consensus.

There has been growing interest in gold as a portfolio diversifier. Last fall, Morgan Stanley CIO Michael Wilson said investors should consider abandoning the traditional 60/40 equity/bond portfolio allocation and adopt a 60/20/20 distribution with 20 percent allocated to precious metals.

Widmer said the 60/20/20 allocation makes sense.

“When you run the analysis since 2020, you can actually justify that retail investors should have a gold share of well above 20 percent. You can even justify 30 percent at the moment.”

On average, Western investors currently hold less than 1 percent of gold in their portfolios.

With the price touching $5,000, it’s getting increasingly more difficult to ignore gold. Widmer said this will likely incentivize more portfolio managers to consider both gold and silver.

“Just looking at benchmarks, gold has been one of the best-performing assets for the past few years. What we've heard a lot of the time is that ‘gold is a non-yielding asset; it costs to hold it; you don't make any money from it, so what's the point of actually holding it?’ But  just from a pure direction perspective, gold could have actually made a good contribution to a portfolio. I think the numbers speak for themselves.”